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辐射改进Hargreaves-Trajkovic模型估算淮北平原参考作物蒸散量

Consideration of the radiation for improving the Hargreaves-Trajkovic model to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration in Huaibei Plain of China

  • 摘要: 为提高Hargreaves-Trajkovic(H-T)模型对参考作物蒸散量(reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)在湿润半湿润区的计算精度,基于安徽省淮北平原区1980—2023年20个气象站点逐日气象数据,提出了一种融合物理先验与数据驱动的改进方法,构建了分层贝叶斯季节性参数模型,精确捕捉辐射的年变化规律对H-T模型进行改进,并以 Penman-Monteith(PM)模型为标准,对其在淮北平原区的适用性进行评价。结果表明:1)H-T改进模型与PM模型ET0计算结果变化趋势基本一致,且模型性能优于已有的基于辐射改进模型;2)H-T改进后模型相比H-T模型均方根误差均值降低0.31 mm/d,R2由0.834提升至0.924,同时模型保持在简化计算架构下达成精度与实用性的协同优化;3)与原H-T模型相比,H-T改进模型在3个区域计算的ET0日值平均绝对误差分别由0.32、0.39、0.36 mm/d下降到0.16、0.15、0.14 mm/d,R2分别由0.971、0.974、0.974提升至0.977、0.981、0.983,说明拟合效果与计算精度均有提高,3个区域ET0月值平均绝对误差分别由0.34、0.40、0.37 mm/d下降到0.07、0.07、0.07 mm/d,R2分别由0.948、0.957、0.953提升至0.973、0.976、0.975,精度与拟合效果均有提升。总体上,H-T改进模型精度提高水平呈整体高、西北部中部局部相对较低,全年精度提升最高可达86.1%,有近80%区域精度提升在50%以上,四季中冬季的精度提升最明显,最高可达93.7%,因此H-T改进模型可作为淮北平原ET0计算的简化模型。研究保留物理可解释性的同时,极大提升了计算精度,其性能优于原H-T模型及常规贝叶斯改进模型,可为解决经验公式的区域适应性问题提供了一种普适性强的方法,为实现精准灌溉和区域水资源管理提供可靠依据,

     

    Abstract: Accurately estimating reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is critical for irrigation planning and water resource. While the conventional Penman-Monteith (P-M) model has limited to the data-intensive requirements in the sparse meteorological stations, due to the FAO-recommended standard. Alternatively, the Hargreaves–Trajkovic (H–T) model is often required only temperature data. However, there are the significant errors in humid and sub-humid climates, due to the simplified representation of solar radiation dynamics. In this study, the accuracy of the H–T model was enhanced to integrate the physical principles with the data-driven calibration. An improved model was proposed using a hierarchical Bayesian seasonal parameter model. The H–T formula was then refined to incorporate the prior physical knowledge of solar radiation patterns. Key model parameters were dynamically calibrated to capture their annual cyclical fluctuations, thereby achieving a more physically consistent and locally adapted estimation of the radiation term. Daily meteorological data (1980-2023) was collected from 20 weather stations in the representative humid-subhumid area, such as the Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province. The performance was evaluated to take the P-M model as the benchmark. Multiple statistical metrics were employed, including the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) at daily, monthly, and seasonal scales. The results show that the substantial performance achieved in the ET0 estimation. Firstly, the H–T model successfully replicated the long-term trend of the ET0 from the P-M model, where the performance significantly surpassed that of the existing simplified ones. Secondly, the mean RMSE was reduced by 0.31 mm/d, whereas, the R2 increased from 0.834 to 0.924 at the regional level, compared with the original H–T model, all while maintaining a simple and practical computational structure. Thirdly, spatial and temporal analysis revealed the consistent gains. In daily ET0 in three subregions, the MAE decreased from 0.32, 0.39, and 0.36 mm/d to 0.16, 0.15, and 0.14 mm/d, respectively, while the daily R2 increased correspondingly. In monthly ET0, the high accuracy was obtained with the MAE reductions to approximately 0.07 mm/d in the subregions and monthly R2 values exceeding 0.97. Spatially, the high accuracy was also distributed with nearly 80% of the area, with an improvement rate exceeding 50% and the maximum annual improvement of 86.1%. Seasonally, there was the most significant enhancement with the maximum accuracy improvement of up to 93.7% in winter. In conclusion, the H–T model with the hierarchical Bayesian seasonal parameter framework was effectively balanced the computational simplicity with high accuracy. A dependable and data-efficient tool can provide for the ET0 estimation in the Huaibei Plain. The finding can offer a transferable framework to improve the temperature ET0 models in the humid and sub-humid regions with the unavailable meteorological datasets.

     

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