高级检索+

基于灰狼算法优化BP的设施葡萄光合速率预测模型

Prediction model of photosynthetic rate of protected grape based on grey wolf algorithm optimization BP

  • 摘要: 为探究设施葡萄环境特征与光合速率间的相关性,实现多环境特征耦合下的设施葡萄光合速率精准预测,该研究提出一种基于灰狼算法优化BP的设施葡萄光合速率预测模型(grey wolf optimizer-back propagation,GWO-BP)。首先采集2024年6—9月妮娜皇后葡萄光合作用数据,然后利用随机森林基尼重要性和最大信息系数筛选出影响光合速率的二氧化碳浓度、空气温度、空气湿度和光合有效辐射关键特征,构建结构为4-12-1的BP模型,使用泽维尔均匀初始化和零初始化算法分别对BP模型的权值和阈值进行初始化,并引入自适应矩估计(adaptive moment estimation,ADAM)算法动态调整学习率,最后通过灰狼算法(grey wolf optimizer,GWO)优化其初始权值和阈值。试验对比分析BP、支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)、随机森林(random forest,RF)、极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)4种模型,确定效果最佳的基础模型,然后对比分析GWO-BP模型与基础模型。结果表明BP模型为最佳基础模型,在验证集和测试集的决定系数(R2)分别为0.832和0.834,性能优于其他3种模型;而GWO-BP模型的验证集R2提升至0.920,均方根误差下降31.2%,平均绝对误差下降25.1%;测试集R2提升至0.918,均方根误差下降29.8%,平均绝对误差下降22.5%,Huber损失函数由0.01降低到0.006以下,有效避免BP模型易陷入局部最优的问题,提升模型的全局搜索能力和收敛稳定性,使其在极端值区间的预测性能更优。该模型为准确捕捉设施葡萄光合速率与多环境特征的耦合关系,实现设施葡萄光合速率精准预测提供可靠的技术手段。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore the correlation between the environmental factors and photosynthetic rate in facility grape, and to achieve accurate prediction of photosynthetic rate of facility grape under the coupling of multiple environmental features, this study proposed a facility grape photosynthetic rate prediction model based on grey wolf algorithm optimizing BP (GWO-BP). Firstly, the photosynthetic data of nina queen grape from June to September 2024 were collected, under controlled environmental conditions, covering the key growth stages of the crop. And then the data were normalized to unify the data scale. Secondly, the four key factors affecting photosynthetic rate, including carbon dioxide concentration, air temperature, air humidity and light intensity, were screened out by using random forest gini importance and maximum information coefficient. A BP neural network model with a structure of 4-12-1 was constructed. Thirdly, the xavier uniform initialization and zero initialization algorithms were used to initialize the weights and thresholds of the BP model. And then the adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm was introduced to dynamically adjust the learning rate. The algorithm combined the advantages of momentum gradient descent and adaptive learning rate, and set different learning rates for different parameters by calculating the first-order moment estimation and second-order moment estimation of the gradient, which can speed up the convergence speed of the model and improve the stability of convergence. Finally, the wolf algorithm (GWO) was used to optimize its initial weights and thresholds to solve the problem of the BP model being easy to fall into local optimum. The weights and thresholds of the BP neural network were initialized by xavier uniform initialization and zeros initialization algorithms, and then the adaptive moment estimation algorithm was introduced to dynamically adjust the learning rate. The algorithm combined the advantages of momentum gradient descent and adaptive learning rate, and set different learning rates for different parameters by calculating the first-order moment estimation and second-order moment estimation of the gradient, which can speed up the convergence speed of the model and improve the stability of convergence. At last, the initial weights and thresholds were optimized by the gray wolf algorithm GWO to solve the problem that the BP model was prone to local optimum. The experimental results showed that compared with the four models of BP, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and extreme learning machine (ELM), were compared and analyzed to determine the basic model with the best effect. The results show that the BP model had the determination coefficients (R2) of 0.832 and 0.834 on the verification set and test set, which was better than the traditional model, but the prediction results had a large deviation in the extreme value area of the photosynthetic rate. After the optimization of GWO, the verification set R2 of the GWO-BP model was increased to 0.920, the root mean square error decreased by 31.2%, and the mean absolute error decreased by 25.1%; the test set R2 reached 0.918, the root mean square error decreased by 29.8%, and the mean absolute error decreased by 22.5%; the Huber loss function was reduced from 0.01 to less than 0.006, indicating a significant reduction in prediction errors. The experimental results showed that the GWO effectively avoided the problem of the BP model being easy to fall into local optimum, and improved the global search ability and convergence stability of the model, so that its prediction performance in the extreme value area was better. The model provided a reliable technical means for accurately capturing the coupling relationship between the photosynthetic rate of facility grape and multiple environmental factors, and realized the accurate prediction of the photosynthetic rate of facility grape.

     

/

返回文章
返回