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基于灰狼算法优化BP的设施葡萄光合速率预测模型

Predicting the photosynthetic rate of protected grape using grey wolf optimizer-back propagation

  • 摘要: 为探究设施葡萄环境特征与光合速率间的相关性,实现多环境特征耦合下的设施葡萄光合速率精准预测,该研究提出一种基于灰狼算法优化BP的设施葡萄光合速率预测模型(grey wolf optimizer-back propagation,GWO-BP)。首先采集2024年6—9月妮娜皇后葡萄光合作用数据,然后利用随机森林基尼重要性和最大信息系数筛选出影响光合速率的二氧化碳浓度、空气温度、空气湿度和光合有效辐射关键特征,构建结构为4-12-1的BP模型,使用泽维尔均匀初始化和零初始化算法分别对BP模型的权值和阈值进行初始化,并引入自适应矩估计(adaptive moment estimation,ADAM)算法动态调整学习率,最后通过灰狼算法(grey wolf optimizer,GWO)优化其初始权值和阈值。试验对比分析BP、支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)、随机森林(random forest,RF)、极限学习机(extreme learning machine,ELM)4种模型,确定效果最佳的基础模型,然后对比分析GWO-BP模型与基础模型。结果表明BP模型为最佳基础模型,在验证集和测试集的决定系数(R2)分别为0.832和0.834,性能优于其他3种模型;而GWO-BP模型相较于BP模型,其验证集R2提升至0.920,均方根误差下降31.2%,平均绝对误差下降25.1%;GWO-BP模型相较于BP模型,其测试集R2提升至0.918,均方根误差下降29.8%,平均绝对误差下降22.5%,Huber损失函数由0.01降低到0.006以下,有效避免BP模型易陷入局部最优的问题,灰狼算法提升BP模型的全局搜索能力和收敛稳定性,使GWO-BP模型在极端值区间的预测性能更优。该模型为准确捕捉设施葡萄光合速率与多环境特征的耦合关系,实现设施葡萄光合速率精准预测提供可靠的技术手段。

     

    Abstract: The photosynthetic rate of the protected grape can be accurately predicted under multiple environmental features. There is also a correlation between the environmental factors and the photosynthetic rate in the protected grape. In this study, the photosynthetic rate of the protected grape was predicted using the grey wolf optimizer - back propagation (GWO-BP). 1) Nina Queen Grape was taken as the research target. Its photosynthetic data was collected under controlled environmental conditions from June to September 2024, thereby covering the key growth stages of the crop. And then the data was normalized to unify the data scale. 2) Four key factors on photosynthetic rate were screened out, including carbon dioxide concentration, air temperature, air humidity, and light intensity, according to random forest Gini importance and maximum information coefficient. A BP neural network model was constructed with a 4-12-1 structure. 3) Xavier uniform and zero initialization were used to initialize the weights and thresholds of the BP model. And then the adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) was introduced to dynamically adjust the learning rate. The momentum gradient descent and adaptive learning rate were combined to determine the learning rates for different parameters. The first- and second-order moment estimation of the gradient was calculated to accelerate the convergence for the stability of the convergence. 4) The GWO was used to optimize the initial weights and thresholds, because the BP model was easy to falling into a local optimum. The weights and thresholds of the BP neural network were initialized by Xavier uniform and zero initialization. And then the adaptive moment estimation was introduced to dynamically adjust the learning rate. The better performance was then achieved to compare with the four models of BP, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and extreme learning machine (ELM). The results show that the BP model shared the determination coefficients (R2) of 0.832 and 0.834 on the validation and test set, respectively, which were better than the conventional model. But the prediction presented a large deviation in the extreme value area of the photosynthetic rate. The validation set R2 of the GWO-BP model increased to 0.920 after GWO optimization, while the root mean square error and mean absolute error decreased by 31.2% and 25.1%, respectively; The test set R2 reached 0.918, while the root mean square error and the mean absolute error decreased by 29.8% and 22.5%, respectively; Huber loss function was reduced from 0.01 to less than 0.006, indicating the low prediction errors. As such, the GWO effectively avoided the local optimum in the BP model, particularly for the global search and convergence stability of the model. There was a better prediction performance in the extreme value area. A dependable technical solution was provided to accurately capture the coupling relationship between the photosynthetic rate of the protected grape and multiple environmental factors. The findings can also provide a strong reference to accurately predict the photosynthetic rate of the protected grape.

     

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