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中国中低产田空间分布与土壤固碳潜力

Spatial distribution and soil carbon sequestration potential of medium and low-yield croplands in China

  • 摘要: 中国中低产田空间分布缺乏精细刻画结果,且高精度农田土壤固碳潜力的定量评估较为匮乏,制约了大尺度、高精度农业管理政策的优化。该研究融合多源数据,在500 m分辨率刻画了中国高中低产田的空间分布,并进一步估算了未来不同气候变化与农业管理措施情景下的土壤固碳潜力。在既定中国九大农业区内基于K-prototypes聚类法得到的二级区划基础上,综合考虑各像元的种植制度和作物类型等详细信息,进一步依据净初级生产力(net primary productivity, NPP)相对大小对各二级区划内的像元进行高产田、中产田和低产田的分类。同时,利用全国31个长期定位试验站点的观测数据构建农田土壤有机碳密度(soil organic carbon density, SOCD)预测模型,以定量评估2021—2060年中国农田土壤固碳潜力。结果表明,中国中低产田主要分布于黄土高原,新疆、宁夏等西北地区,在东南丘陵和云贵高原地区有零散分布。基于中等排放情景(SSP245)和50%秸秆还田情景,中国中低产田平均SOCD预计在2060年将达到54.2 t/hm2(以C计,下同),相较当前平均增加19.0%,中低产田土壤碳储量共计将增加0.8 Gt。在低排放和高碳输入情景下,农田土壤碳汇效应相对更高,预计2060年中国中低产田SOCD最高可增加至57.8 t/hm2。研究表明,中低产田是未来实现增产与固碳的关键区域。研究为准确识别中国中低产田分布格局和深入理解其土壤碳汇在中国实现碳中和目标中的潜在贡献提供了科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Spatial distribution of medium- and low-yield croplands is often required for the high-precision assessment of the soil carbon sequestration potential in China. It is still lacking in the characterization for the large-scale production in precision agriculture. In this research, the spatial distribution of such croplands was determined to predict their soil carbon sequestration potential under diverse future scenarios. Using K-prototypes clustering, multi-source data were integrated to delineate the secondary regions within the nine agricultural regions. The planting systems and crop types of each pixel were then considered. The pixels of croplands within each secondary region were further classified into the high-, medium-, and low-yield using the relative net primary productivity (NPP) values at a 500 m resolution. Meanwhile, based on data from 31 long-term positioning experiental sites, the soil organic carbon density (SOCD) was predicted to quantitatively assess the soil carbon sequestration potential of medium- and low-yield croplands over the next four decades (2021-2060). The results revealed that the medium- and low-yield croplands were predominantly located in the Loess Plateau, northwestern regions, including Xinjiang and Ningxia. There were scattered distributions in the central North China Plain, the central Sichuan Basin, the Southeast Hilly Region, and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Under the medium-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 scenario, with 50% straw returning to the field, the average SOCD of these croplands was projected to reach 54.2 tons of carbon per hectare in 2060, indicating a 19.0% increase from current levels. The soil organic carbon storage of the medium- and low-yield croplands was expected to rise by 0.8 gigaton. The carbon sink of cropland soil was relatively high under the low emissions and high carbon inputs. It is projected that the SOCD of medium- and low-yield croplands can increase to a maximum of 57.8 tons per hectare in 2060. Medium- and low-yield croplands have considerable potential for carbon sequestration, and are key areas where management measures can be implemented to sequester carbon, especially in regions such as the northern arid and semi-arid areas, and the Loess Plateau region, where medium- and low-yield croplands are widely distributed. The finding can provide a scientific reference to accurately identify the distribution pattern of the medium- and low-yield croplands in China. The soil carbon sinks of medium- and low-yield croplands can potentially contribute to carbon neutrality.

     

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