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中国土地城市化对生态环境质量的空间影响效应

Spatial impact effects of China’s land urbanization on ecological environment quality

  • 摘要: 科学评估土地城市化对生态环境质量的效应,对推动城市可持续发展至关重要。该研究以中国284个地级及以上城市为研究对象,基于实证数据,运用双变量空间自相关和空间杜宾模型,系统探究二者的空间影响效应。结果表明:1)中国土地城市化与生态环境质量指数均持续提升,“核心-外圈”的圈层结构层次分明。二者空间关联格局呈“由点分散向片集中”的增强态势,“高-高”和“低-低”集聚区增加,“低-高”和“高-低”集聚区缩小,土地城市化对生态环境质量的正向影响扩大。2)土地城市化对本地生态环境质量存在负向影响,且通过空间溢出效应对邻近地区生态环境质量产生消极作用。3)土地城市化对生态环境质量的影响具有明显时空异质性:时间上,短期负面效应高于长期影响;空间上,东部地区呈现正向环境效应,中西部及东北地区则表现为抑制作用,该差异由区位条件、开发模式、生态本底及政策调控等因素共同导致。因此,应通过强化建设用地管控、完善土地市场机制与生态保护制度,为土地城市化进程中改善生态环境质量提供政策支撑。

     

    Abstract: Urbanization is essentially a systemic transformation from an agricultural society to an urban society, with land urbanization serving as its core manifestation. Since the 1990s, China has experienced rapid land urbanization, which has led to issues such as “ghost cities”, reduction of arable land, ecological deterioration, and other problems, threatening food security and people’s livelihoods. Changes in land use patterns and resource allocation efficiency have profound impacts on ecological environment quality. So Scientifically assessing the spatiotemporal repercussions of land urbanization on ecological environment quality is not only a theoretical necessity but also a practical requirement for fostering regional sustainability. Drawing upon empirical data from 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework to measure the trajectories of both land urbanization and EEQ. By employing bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial Durbin models to systematically investigate the spatial dependence, direct impacts, and indirect spillover effects inherent in the urbanization-environment nexus. The results show that: (1) During the study period, land urbanization levels in China rose steadily. Both land urbanization and ecological quality indices demonstrate continuous improvement, exhibiting a distinct “core-periphery” hierarchical spatial structure. The ecological environment quality index increased from 0.661 to 0.792, with an average annual growth rate of 0.93%, mainly driven by the expansion of green spaces and enhanced environmental governance. (2) The spatial correlation between land urbanization and ecological environment quality exhibits four typical correlation patterns: “high-high synergy”, “high-low imbalance”, “low-high heterogeneity”, and “low-low lag”. The intensity of spatial correlation increases, and the distribution pattern gradually evolves from a scattered to a clustered configuration. This is manifested by the expansion of high-high synergy areas and low-low lag areas, along with the contraction of high-low imbalance areas and low-high heterogeneity areas, confirming that the positive promoting effect of land urbanization on ecological environment quality has been continuously strengthening in the spatial dimension. (3) Contrary to localized benefits in specific zones, the overall land urbanization continues to exert a significant inhibitory effect on local ecological environment quality. Furthermore, the SDM analysis confirms the existence of negative spatial spillover effects, indicating that GDP, IND, and TEC positively contribute to ecological quality, POP shows significant negative effects. And the environmental impacts demonstrate spatiotemporal heterogeneity: short-term negative effects outweigh long-term impacts temporally, while spatially, eastern regions exhibit positive effects contrasting with negative impacts in central-western and northeastern regions-disparities attributable to compounded factors including locational advantages, development models, ecological carrying capacity, and policy interventions. To harmonize urbanization and environmental health, these findings suggest implementing differentiated land-use policies, improving market-based allocation mechanisms, and strengthening institutional safeguards for ecological protection to guide sustainable urban land development. And the marginal contributions of this research are threefold: Theoretically, it integrates spatial spillover effects and spatial-temporal heterogeneity into a unified analytical framework, refining the theoretical system of urbanization-environment interactions. Methodologically, the use of the Spatial Durbin Model effectively addresses endogeneity and spatial dependence, while effect decomposition reveals the specific direct and indirect pathways of influence. Practically, the study provides empirical evidence and decision-making support for crafting differentiated regional sustainability policies, optimizing territorial spatial development, and improving ecological compensation mechanisms.

     

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