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华北地区典型镇域尺度蛋鸡养殖碳排放热点及碳减排潜力

Carbon emission hotspots and mitigation potential of layer hen breeding at a typical township scale in North China

  • 摘要: 针对华北地区蛋鸡养殖模式多样、碳排放热点不清、小尺度核算体系缺失的问题,该研究基于混合生命周期评价法与联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会温室气体核算框架,结合 2023—2025 年河北省邯郸市曲周县某镇 300余蛋鸡养殖户的实地调研数据、125 篇国内畜禽养殖文献 Meta 分析结果及 Ecoinvent v3.9 数据库参数,构建覆盖饲料生产加工、蛋鸡饲养、粪污清储、粪污资源化管理的全链条碳排放核算体系,核算功能单位为每千克鸡蛋1 a的碳排放量。结果表明,2023—2025年,研究区域蛋鸡养殖呈现养殖户减少、存栏量增加、总碳排放降低的集约化转型趋势,养殖主体从382户降至310户,存栏量从580万羽增至 690 万羽,全链条年碳排放总量从 4.26 万t 降至3.12万t,累计降幅 26.8%;村域碳排放热点呈现由中西部高值集聚向全域低值均衡分布的转型特征;饲料生产加工与粪污清储是核心碳排放热点,分别占全链条总排放的30%和25%。情景分析结果显示,采用蛋鸡养殖全链条优化技术组合措施后,蛋鸡养殖综合减排潜力最高可达52%,其中产后粪污管理环节减排贡献为为40%,减排幅度最大。该研究可为华北地区镇域尺度蛋鸡养殖碳排放精细化管理提供方法支撑与数据参考,为蛋鸡产业绿色低碳转型提供可行路径。

     

    Abstract: Township-scale carbon accounting for layer hen breeding remained underdeveloped in North China, despite the region’s high production intensity and the growing need for precise mitigation planning. This study quantified whole-chain carbon emissions, identified spatial hotspots, and evaluated the mitigation potential of coordinated low-carbon technologies in a typical layer-hen-intensive township in Quzhou County, Hebei Province, during 2023—2025. A hybrid life cycle assessment was combined with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change greenhouse gas accounting framework. The system boundary covered feed crop production, feed processing and transport, layer rearing, manure removal and storage, and manure treatment with resource utilization. Carbon emissions were estimated using three consecutive years of field survey data from more than 300 layer hen households, together with parameters from domestic livestock studies and emission factors from the Ecoinvent version 3.9 database. Annual emissions were calculated per kilogram of eggs and per layer. A baseline scenario, multiple single-factor optimization scenarios, and an integrated optimization scenario were further constructed to assess the independent and combined mitigation effects of breed improvement, feed reformulation, housing upgrades, manure management, and composting optimization. The results showed a clear transition towards intensified production. The number of farming entities decreased from 382 to 310, whereas the standing population increased from 5.8 million to 6.9 million birds, indicating a shift towards fewer but larger operations. Despite herd expansion, total annual carbon emissions declined from 42600 t to 31200 t, representing a cumulative decrease of 26.8%. Carbon intensity per kilogram of eggs fell from 0.92 kg to 0.78 kg, and annual emissions per layer decreased from 25.3 kg to 23.5 kg. These findings indicated that gains in production efficiency more than offset the upward pressure associated with inventory growth.Village-level spatial patterns also changed substantially. In 2023, high-emission villages were concentrated in the central and western parts of the township, with several villages exceeding 7000 t annually. In 2024, the hotspot area contracted markedly, and by 2025 most villages had shifted to lower emission levels, generally below 4000 t per year. This pattern reflected a transition from clustered high-emission hotspots to a more evenly distributed low-emission structure. Emission-source analysis showed that feed-related processes and manure management dominated the carbon footprint. Feed production and processing contributed about 30% of total emissions, manure removal and storage accounted for about 25%, and feed cultivation contributed about 24%, whereas transport contributed less than 2%. The largest reductions occurred in feed processing and manure handling, both of which declined by 38% over the study period and together explained most of the total reduction. Decomposition analysis indicated that improved production efficiency was the leading driver of emission reduction, followed by structural optimization associated with scaling-up and intensification, while herd expansion remained the main factor increasing emissions. Scenario analysis further revealed considerable but uneven mitigation opportunities. Post-farm manure management delivered the greatest standalone reduction potential, with cumulative independent contributions reaching 40%. On-farm measures contributed 17%, and pre-farm interventions, especially feed optimization, contributed 16%. When all optimal measures were combined across the production chain, the maximum integrated mitigation potential reached 52%, avoiding the overestimation that would result from directly summing single-factor effects. Overall, this study showed that township-scale accounting could effectively capture both structural and spatial dynamics of carbon emissions in layer hen breeding. Coordinated improvements in feed systems, production efficiency, and manure treatment were identified as the most effective pathway for reducing emissions and advancing the low-carbon transition of the layer hen industry in North China.

     

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