Abstract:
Township-scale carbon accounting for layer hen breeding remained underdeveloped in North China, despite the region’s high production intensity and the growing need for precise mitigation planning. This study quantified whole-chain carbon emissions, identified spatial hotspots, and evaluated the mitigation potential of coordinated low-carbon technologies in a typical layer-hen-intensive township in Quzhou County, Hebei Province, during 2023—2025. A hybrid life cycle assessment was combined with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change greenhouse gas accounting framework. The system boundary covered feed crop production, feed processing and transport, layer rearing, manure removal and storage, and manure treatment with resource utilization. Carbon emissions were estimated using three consecutive years of field survey data from more than 300 layer hen households, together with parameters from domestic livestock studies and emission factors from the Ecoinvent version 3.9 database. Annual emissions were calculated per kilogram of eggs and per layer. A baseline scenario, multiple single-factor optimization scenarios, and an integrated optimization scenario were further constructed to assess the independent and combined mitigation effects of breed improvement, feed reformulation, housing upgrades, manure management, and composting optimization. The results showed a clear transition towards intensified production. The number of farming entities decreased from 382 to 310, whereas the standing population increased from 5.8 million to 6.9 million birds, indicating a shift towards fewer but larger operations. Despite herd expansion, total annual carbon emissions declined from
42600 t to
31200 t, representing a cumulative decrease of 26.8%. Carbon intensity per kilogram of eggs fell from 0.92 kg to 0.78 kg, and annual emissions per layer decreased from 25.3 kg to 23.5 kg. These findings indicated that gains in production efficiency more than offset the upward pressure associated with inventory growth.Village-level spatial patterns also changed substantially. In 2023, high-emission villages were concentrated in the central and western parts of the township, with several villages exceeding
7000 t annually. In 2024, the hotspot area contracted markedly, and by 2025 most villages had shifted to lower emission levels, generally below
4000 t per year. This pattern reflected a transition from clustered high-emission hotspots to a more evenly distributed low-emission structure. Emission-source analysis showed that feed-related processes and manure management dominated the carbon footprint. Feed production and processing contributed about 30% of total emissions, manure removal and storage accounted for about 25%, and feed cultivation contributed about 24%, whereas transport contributed less than 2%. The largest reductions occurred in feed processing and manure handling, both of which declined by 38% over the study period and together explained most of the total reduction. Decomposition analysis indicated that improved production efficiency was the leading driver of emission reduction, followed by structural optimization associated with scaling-up and intensification, while herd expansion remained the main factor increasing emissions. Scenario analysis further revealed considerable but uneven mitigation opportunities. Post-farm manure management delivered the greatest standalone reduction potential, with cumulative independent contributions reaching 40%. On-farm measures contributed 17%, and pre-farm interventions, especially feed optimization, contributed 16%. When all optimal measures were combined across the production chain, the maximum integrated mitigation potential reached 52%, avoiding the overestimation that would result from directly summing single-factor effects. Overall, this study showed that township-scale accounting could effectively capture both structural and spatial dynamics of carbon emissions in layer hen breeding. Coordinated improvements in feed systems, production efficiency, and manure treatment were identified as the most effective pathway for reducing emissions and advancing the low-carbon transition of the layer hen industry in North China.