Abstract:
Comprehensive land consolidation (CLC) is an important instrument for modernizing territorial spatial governance and supporting high-quality development in China. Yet pronounced county-level differences in land-use problems and implementation conditions make existing models strongly place-dependent. Single-score suitability assessments may assign similar values to counties with different demand-capacity combinations, limiting their usefulness for determining priorities and support measures. This study therefore developed a Demand-Capacity Synergy framework, defining suitability as the matching state between the urgency of consolidation demand and the capacity to undertake consolidation tasks rather than as a binary judgment of whether consolidation should be implemented. A total of 2,843 county-level units were evaluated using multi-source land-cover, ecological, demographic, socioeconomic, and point-of-interest data, mainly for 2023. The Consolidation Demand Index (N) incorporated ecological environmental quality, cultivated land fragmentation, per capita construction land, and production-living-ecological spatial conflict. Capacity was decomposed into the Economic Support Capacity Index (E), representing fiscal and economic conditions, and the Social Response Capacity Index (S), representing demographic change, education, public facilities, and grassroots administrative coverage. Entropy weighting was applied within each dimension, and E and S were aggregated by geometric mean to obtain the Consolidation Capacity Index (Cap), preserving sensitivity to weakness in either component. Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to inspect the data structure. Types were identified using the 25th percentile of N and the medians of E and S as relative thresholds, with threshold sensitivity tests. The results showed that N and Cap followed different spatial patterns. N was generally higher in northern China and lower in southern China, with high values mainly in the Northeast Plain, eastern Inner Mongolia, the North China Plain, and some arid agro-pastoral areas in northwestern China. Cap was higher in southeastern China and lower in northwestern China, with high values concentrated in eastern coastal areas and major urban agglomerations. N and Cap were only weakly positively correlated (Pearson r =
0.1780; Spearman rho =
0.2576; p < 0.001), indicating limited synchronization between consolidation urgency and implementation capacity. Classifications based on alternative N thresholds were approximately 95.01% consistent with the baseline classification. Six suitability types were identified. Four core policy types covered 2,132 counties: Priority Consolidation (A; 841 counties, 29.58%), Economically Constrained (C1; 301, 10.59%), Socially Constrained (C2; 354, 12.45%), and Dual-Constraint Critical (F; 636, 22.37%). Type F combined relatively high demand with low economic and social capacity and accounted for 33.57% of counties northwest of the Hu Line. These counties could be difficult to distinguish from low-demand counties through a single composite score. The non-core high-capacity and low-capacity types, B and D, contained 152 and 559 counties, respectively. The identified combinations imply different implementation priorities. Type A can be prioritized for integrated and systematic tasks. Type C1 requires stronger economic support and project scales suited to local capacity, whereas Type C2 requires greater attention to public participation, benefit coordination, public services, and grassroots organization. Type F requires external fiscal, financial, technical, and organizational support, and phased implementation. Types B and D indicate a lower relative priority for large-scale comprehensive projects rather than an absence of consolidation needs. The framework thus shifts suitability assessment from a single ranking toward matching consolidation priorities, task scales, implementation timing, and support measures, providing county-level evidence for locally adapted implementation of comprehensive land consolidation in China.