高级检索+

水-能-粮关联视角下黄河中下游地区全要素生产率时空演变特征及驱动机制

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of total factor productivity in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River using water-energy-food nexus

  • 摘要: 水、能源、粮食是人类社会生存与发展的三大基石,针对黄河中下游地区水资源短缺、资源环境承载能力弱的问题,探究基于水-能源-粮食关联关系的黄河中下游地区全要素生产对黄河流域高质量发展有重要意义。该研究设置了考虑非期望产出和不考虑非期望产出两种情景,运用基于slack的测量方向距离函数(slacks-based measure directional distance function,SBM-DDF-GML)评估水—能源—粮食关联视角下黄河中下游地区城市全要素生产率(total factor productivity, TFP)的时空演变规律,并基于偏最小二乘回归(partial least squares regression,PLSR)模型探究全要素生产率的驱动机制。结果表明:2010―2021年黄河中下游地区TFP整体上呈现随时间增长趋势,其中考虑非期望产出的全要素生产率(TFPu)变化范围为0.701~1.000,不考虑非期望产出的全要素生产率(TFPc)变化范围为0.823~1.000,且TFPu小于TFPc,表明忽略污染排放等非期望产出会高估区域生产效率。此外,各城市TFPu(0.941)小于TFPc(0.957),且TFPu在空间上呈现从西向东逐渐下降的趋势,而TFPc呈现四周高中间低的变化趋势,表明考虑非期望产出后更能揭示区域绿色生产效率的真实差异。驱动机制分析显示,期望产出能力提升与资源利用方式优化是推动TFP增长的核心动力,而非期望产出对效率形成具有持续抑制效应。该研究揭示了环境约束重塑资源利用效率评估结果及其演化机制,为黄河流域节水增效、污染减排协同推进与资源优化配置提供了定量决策依据。

     

    Abstract: The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus can be closely interconnected with the production, allocation, and consumption of water, energy, and food in sustainable agriculture. One subsystem also strongly affects the others. Accordingly, the WEF nexus can improve the resource use efficiency under increasing resource scarcity and environmental pressure. A typical region, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MLYR), is characterized by water scarcity, energy consumption, food production, and environmental constraints. From the WEF nexus perspective, total factor productivity (TFP) is expected to promote high-quality regional development and integrated resource governance under the dual pressures of rigid water constraints and limited environmental carrying capacity. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of total factor productivity in the Middle and Lower reaches of the Yellow River using the water-energy-food nexus. Two scenarios were constructed, one considering undesirable outputs and another excluding them, to identify the effects of environmental constraints on TFP measurement. The slack-based measure directional distance function combined with the global Malmquist–Luenberger (SBM-DDF-GML) index was employed to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of urban TFP in the MLYR from 2010 to 2021. Dynamic productivity was captured to incorporate undesirable outputs, such as pollution emissions. Thereby, the efficiency evaluation framework was provided under environmental constraints. In addition, partial least squares regression (PLSR) was applied to identify the key factors driving TFP dynamics for the mechanism of efficiency evolution. The results show that urban TFP exhibited an overall upward trend during 2010–2021, indicating gradual advancement in resource allocation, production conditions, and technology. There were outstanding differences in magnitude and spatial pattern under the two scenarios. TFP with undesirable outputs (TFPu) ranged from 0.701 to 1.000, whereas conventional TFP without undesirable outputs (TFPc) ranged from 0.823 to 1.000. Furthermore, TFPu was consistently lower than TFPc among cities in the study period, and the average TFPu value (0.941) was also lower than the average TFPc value (0.957). Actual productivity was then overestimated without considering environmental costs, whereas the undesirable outputs provided a more reliable assessment of development quality. Spatially, TFPu generally shared a decreasing pattern from west to east, indicating stronger environmental constraints and lower resource use efficiency in the eastern region, when considering pollution. By contrast, TFPc displayed the higher-level pattern in the peripheral areas, whereas the lower levels were in the central region. Environmental constraints significantly reshaped the spatial pattern of productivity. The driving mechanism analysis further showed that the growth in desirable outputs and improvements in resource utilization efficiency were the main contributors to TFP enhancement, whereas undesirable outputs exerted a persistent inhibitory effect. Overall, the environmental constraints can redefine the assessment and evolution of resource use efficiency. The findings can also provide quantitative evidence to coordinate the water saving, pollution reduction, and resource optimization in the Yellow River Basin.

     

/

返回文章
返回