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水-能-粮关联视角下黄河中下游地区全要素生产率时空演变特征及驱动机制

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of total factor productivity in the Middle and Lower reaches of the Yellow River based on water-energy-food nexus

  • 摘要: 水、能源、粮食是人类社会生存与发展的三大基石,针对黄河中下游地区水资源短缺、资源环境承载能力弱的问题,探究基于水-能源-粮食关联关系的黄河中下游地区全要素生产对黄河流域高质量发展有重要意义。该研究设置了考虑非期望产出和不考虑非期望产出两种情景,运用基于slack的测量方向距离函数(slacks-based measure directional distance function,SBM-DDF-GML)评估水-能源-粮食关联视角下黄河中下游地区城市全要素生产率(total factor productivity, TFP)的时空演变规律,并基于偏最小二乘回归(partial least squares regression,PLSR)模型探究全要素生产率的驱动机制。结果表明:2010―2021年黄河中下游地区TFP整体上呈现随时间增长趋势,其中考虑非期望产出的全要素生产率(TFPu)变化范围为0.701~1.000,不考虑非期望产出的全要素生产率(TFPc)变化范围为0.823~1.000,且TFPu小于TFPc。此外,各城市TFPu(0.941)小于TFPc(0.957),且TFPu在空间上呈现从西向东逐渐下降的趋势,而TFPc呈现四周高中间低的变化趋势。驱动机制分析显示,期望产出能力提升与资源利用方式优化是推动TFP增长的核心动力,而非期望产出对效率形成具有持续抑制效应。该研究揭示了环境约束重塑资源利用效率评估结果及其演化机制,为黄河流域节水增效、污染减排协同推进与资源优化配置提供了定量决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Attract: Water, energy, and food are fundamental pillars of human survival, economic growth, and long-term social stability. Their production, allocation, and consumption are closely interconnected, forming the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus, in which changes in one subsystem can strongly affect the others. Accordingly, in regions facing increasing resource scarcity and environmental pressure, understanding the WEF nexus is essential for improving resource use efficiency and promoting sustainable development. The middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MLYR) are a typical region where water scarcity, energy consumption, food production, and environmental constraints coexist. Under the dual pressures of rigid water constraints and limited environmental carrying capacity, investigating total factor productivity (TFP) from the WEF nexus perspective is of great significance for promoting high-quality regional development and improving integrated resource governance. To address this issue, this study constructed two comparative scenarios, one considering undesirable outputs and the other excluding them, to identify the effects of environmental constraints on TFP measurement. The slack-based measure directional distance function combined with the global Malmquist–Luenberger (SBM-DDF-GML) index was employed to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of urban TFP in the MLYR from 2010 to 2021. This method captures dynamic productivity changes while incorporating undesirable outputs such as pollution emissions into the efficiency evaluation framework, thereby providing a more realistic assessment under environmental constraints. In addition, partial least squares regression (PLSR) was applied to identify the key factors driving TFP dynamics and to reveal the underlying mechanism of efficiency evolution. The results show that urban TFP in the MLYR exhibited an overall upward trend during 2010–2021, indicating gradual improvement in resource allocation, production conditions, and technological progress. However, clear differences in magnitude and spatial pattern emerged under the two scenarios. TFP considering undesirable outputs (TFPu) ranged from 0.701 to 1.000, whereas conventional TFP without undesirable outputs (TFPc) ranged from 0.823 to 1.000. Across the study period and among cities, TFPu was consistently lower than TFPc, and the average TFPu value (0.941) was also lower than the average TFPc value (0.957). This indicates that ignoring environmental costs may overestimate actual productivity, whereas incorporating undesirable outputs provides a more realistic and prudent assessment of development quality. Spatially, TFPu generally showed a decreasing pattern from west to east, suggesting stronger environmental constraints and lower resource use efficiency in the eastern part of the study area under pollution-inclusive conditions. By contrast, TFPc displayed a pattern of relatively higher levels in peripheral areas and lower levels in the central region. This difference indicates that environmental constraints significantly reshape the spatial pattern of productivity evaluation. The driving mechanism analysis further showed that growth in desirable outputs and improvements in resource utilization efficiency were the main contributors to TFP enhancement, whereas undesirable outputs exerted a persistent inhibitory effect. Overall, this study clearly demonstrates that environmental constraints play a critical role in reshaping both the assessment and evolution of resource use efficiency, and it provides quantitative evidence for promoting coordinated strategies of water saving, pollution reduction, and resource optimization in the Yellow River Basin.

     

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