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黄河三角洲碳汇格局演变与空间规划响应

Evolution of the Carbon Sink Pattern and Spatial Planning Response in the Yellow River Delta

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化与“双碳”战略背景下,河口三角洲碳汇空间格局的优化对实现双碳目标导向的空间规划至关重要。本文以黄河三角洲为研究区,利用InVEST模型估算碳储量,并结合地理探测器识别碳储量空间分异的主要驱动因子。在此基础上,构建“机理解析—空间响应—策略应对”的分析框架,揭示区域碳储量的时空演变规律及其人地耦合驱动机制,并通过MSPA(Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis)-MCR(Minimum Cumulative Resistance)模型识别碳汇核心区与潜在廊道,提出差异化空间管控策略。研究表明:1)1990-2020年黄河三角洲土地利用变化以湿地沼泽向耕地、养殖池及建设用地转化为主,碳储量空间分布呈现“东北高西南低”格局;2)地理探测器分析显示,NDVI、土壤盐碱度、黏土含量、人口密度和GDP是碳储量空间分异的主导驱动因子;3)基于驱动因子贡献度,提出了四级空间管控分区方案:碳汇核心保育区、碳汇优化调控区、碳汇脆弱修复区和低碳集约提升区;4)识别出关键碳汇区及碳汇廊道,构建“四区多廊”的空间优化格局,最终形成了“分区调控-廊道联通”的全域碳汇空间优化格局,并针对各分区制定差异化管控规则,该工作探索了由区域碳储量评估理论研究向国土空间规划实践的转变路径,为河口三角洲地区“双碳”目标实现提供了科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change and the "Dual Carbon" strategy,optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sink in estuarine deltas is crucial for achieving carbon-oriented spatial planning. This study takes the Yellow River Delta as the research area,integrating the InVEST model for carbon storage accounting and the Geodetector method for driving factor analysis,to construct an analytical framework of "mechanism analysis–spatial response–strategic solutions". It reveals the spatiotemporal evolution of regional carbon storage and its human-land coupling driving mechanism,combines the MSPA-MCR model to identify carbon sink core areas and corridor networks, and proposes differentiated spatial management strategies. The research shows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta were mainly characterized by the conversion of wetland and marsh to cultivated land,aquaculture ponds,and construction land,with carbon storage exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of "higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest"; (2) Geodetector analysis indicates that NDVI, soil salinity, clay content, population density, and GDP are the dominant driving factors behind the spatial differentiation of carbon storage; (3) Based on the contribution of driving factors,a four-level spatial management zoning scheme is proposed: Carbon Sink Core Conservation Area,Carbon Sink Optimization and Regulation Area, Carbon Sink Vulnerable Restoration Area, and Low-Carbon Intensive Enhancement Area; (4) Key carbon sink corridors are identified,forming a spatial optimization pattern of "four zones and multiple corridors",ultimately establishing a comprehensive carbon sink spatial optimization framework of "hierarchical regulation–corridor connectivity",with differentiated management rules tailored for each zone. This study explores a pathway from theoretical research on regional carbon storage assessment to practical territorial spatial planning,providing scientific reference for achieving the "Dual Carbon" goals in estuarine delta regions.

     

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