Abstract:
Against the backdrop of global climate change and the "Dual Carbon" strategy,optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon sink in estuarine deltas is crucial for achieving carbon-oriented spatial planning. This study takes the Yellow River Delta as the research area,integrating the InVEST model for carbon storage accounting and the Geodetector method for driving factor analysis,to construct an analytical framework of "mechanism analysis–spatial response–strategic solutions". It reveals the spatiotemporal evolution of regional carbon storage and its human-land coupling driving mechanism,combines the MSPA-MCR model to identify carbon sink core areas and corridor networks, and proposes differentiated spatial management strategies. The research shows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta were mainly characterized by the conversion of wetland and marsh to cultivated land,aquaculture ponds,and construction land,with carbon storage exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of "higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest"; (2) Geodetector analysis indicates that NDVI, soil salinity, clay content, population density, and GDP are the dominant driving factors behind the spatial differentiation of carbon storage; (3) Based on the contribution of driving factors,a four-level spatial management zoning scheme is proposed: Carbon Sink Core Conservation Area,Carbon Sink Optimization and Regulation Area, Carbon Sink Vulnerable Restoration Area, and Low-Carbon Intensive Enhancement Area; (4) Key carbon sink corridors are identified,forming a spatial optimization pattern of "four zones and multiple corridors",ultimately establishing a comprehensive carbon sink spatial optimization framework of "hierarchical regulation–corridor connectivity",with differentiated management rules tailored for each zone. This study explores a pathway from theoretical research on regional carbon storage assessment to practical territorial spatial planning,providing scientific reference for achieving the "Dual Carbon" goals in estuarine delta regions.