Abstract: As suburban rural areas of metropolitan regions serve as the interface between urban and rural elements, their rural settlements face prominent contradictions such as idle and inefficient land use, scattered spatial layouts, and supply–demand mismatches in functions. Against the strategic background of comprehensive rural revitalization and the in-depth implementation of territory-wide land consolidation, rural settlement consolidation increasingly emphasizes the precise alignment between land supply and development demand, so as to achieve an accurate release of consolidation potential. Therefore, scientifically assessing the consolidation potential of rural settlements and exploring differentiated consolidation pathways are crucial for implementing territory-wide land consolidation, revitalizing rural stock resources, and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization. Taking Jurong City, a suburban area of the Nanjing metropolitan region, as an empirical case, this study constructs an analytical framework of “supply–demand assessment–type identification” based on supply–demand theory. It uses the one-class support vector machine algorithm and comprehensive analysis methods to assess the supply–demand consolidation potential of rural settlements in Jurong. Furthermore, it explores precise land resource allocation pathways at the village scale in combination with rural dominant function demands. The results show:1) The theoretical consolidation potential of rural settlements is approximately 8490.19 hm², accounting for 61.51% of the current settlement area. The willingness simulation model is validated with an accuracy of 87.81% and a recall rate of 95.48%, indicating high precision. The modeled willingness values for administrative villages range from 0.33 to 0.76. Villages with higher consolidation willingness are mainly distributed in the southeastern region, including the Maoshan Scenic Area, Maoshan Town, Houbai Town, and Tianwang Town. After correction, the actual consolidation potential of rural settlements in Jurong is 5441.91 hm², representing 39.42% of the current rural settlement land.2) The demand potential of rural revitalization ranges from 0.20 to 0.60, exhibiting a pattern of “higher in the west, lower in the east, with clustered distribution.” Among all villages, the number of medium-demand villages is the largest, totaling 100 (53% of all villages).3) Based on a supply–demand balance analysis, four types of supply–demand potential zones are identified: priority consolidation zone, reserve regulation zone, demand-oriented zone, and stable control zone, accounting for 43, 35, 73, and 37 villages, respectively.4) Four types of dominant functional demands are identified among the rural settlements in Jurong, with the majority being balanced development villages. Most villages show no clear dominant functional demand, exhibiting a balanced feature with relatively scattered spatial distribution. By coupling potential zones with dominant functional demands, 12 consolidation types at the village scale are derived. Following governance logic, these are summarized into potential release pathways such as “spatial reconstruction,” “precise guidance,” “flexible regulation,” and “micro-renewal,” enabling “one village, one strategy” precise intervention. Corresponding targeted consolidation measures are proposed, such as “releasing potential through village reorganization” and “innovating dynamic land reservation supply.” Differentiated strategies are implemented to promote intensive and economical land use, enhance rural functions, and optimize spatial patterns.The findings provide a demonstration and reference for precisely matching land supply with rural revitalization demands in metropolitan suburban spatial units.