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基于贝叶斯网络的江汉平原种植模式优化

Optimization of cropping patterns on the Jianghan Plain based on Bayesian networks

  • 摘要: 综合农业“集约化”和“可持续”发展的农作物种植模式空间布局优化,是保障国家粮食安全和推动农业绿色转型的关键路径。该研究综合时序遥感数据和作物物候知识,提取江汉平原地区主要的种植模式,从粮食安全、生态安全两个维度,构建融合单位面积产值、净初级生产力、需水量、面源污染负荷和温室气体排放强度六项指标的可持续集约化评价体系,对主要种植模式的生产功能正效应和生态成本负效应进行系统量化;在此基础上,整合资源环境限制、社会经济发展需求等多维度驱动因子,构建基于贝叶斯的种植模式空间布局优化模型,在开发、保护和权衡3种情景下模拟种植模式优化结果。结果表明:1)不同种植模式的生产收益和生态成本差异显著。生产功能正效应方面,双季稻得分最高(0.91),冬小麦-水稻(0.87)和冬油菜-水稻(0.84)次之;生态功能负效应方面,冬小麦-大豆和冬油菜-大豆生态成本最小(均为−0.37),双季稻生态成本最高。2)以兼顾粮食安全与生态保护的权衡情景为最优方案,综合期望效应较高的冬小麦-水稻、冬油菜-水稻、冬小麦-大豆和双季稻是江汉平原种植模式优化的可选方案,4种模式的种植比例从实际的11.9%调整至32.6%。空间上,江汉平原东南部适宜发展双季稻,中部宜推广冬小麦-大豆,西南部及汉水两岸适合冬小麦-水稻,高海拔远河流区域则以冬油菜-水稻为优,在保障农业生产经济效益的同时最大化区域的生态效益,实现农业可持续集约化发展。该研究提出的基于贝叶斯网络的种植模式优化方法可以在多驱动因子、多决策背景下,实现基于地块尺度的种植模式空间布局优化,有助于促进耕地资源合理利用,同时为同类型地区种植模式的优化调整提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: Cropping patterns describe how crops are arranged and sequenced through time, and they directly shape agricultural inputs, yields, and the associated regional climate and ecological processes. Optimizing the spatial distribution of cropping patterns, integrating agricultural intensification and sustainable development, is now a broadly endorsed objective. The Jianghan Plain is an important agricultural production base in central China in Hubei Province, characterized by intensive cultivation and diverse cropping systems. In recent years, non-grain and non-farming conversion has become increasingly prominent, accompanied by growing pressure on resources and the environment. Timely and accurate mapping of cropping patterns and their spatial optimization from food security and ecological security perspectives are essential for guiding sustainable agricultural restructuring on the Jianghan Plain. However, existing cropping pattern optimization studies have primarily focused on administrative-scale structural adjustments, leaving spatially explicit, plot-level approaches largely underexplored. This study integrated time-series remote sensing data and phenological knowledge to map the major cropping patterns on the Jianghan Plain, constructed a sustainable intensification evaluation framework from food security and ecological security perspectives, incorporating six indicators including output value per unit area, net primary productivity, crop water requirement, non-point source pollution load, and greenhouse gas emission intensity, to quantitatively evaluate the production benefits and ecological costs of cropping patterns from food security and ecological security perspectives. On this basis, through incorporating multi-dimensional indicators such as resources, environment, and socio-economic factors, a Bayesian Network for cropping patterns optimization was built to explore the cropping patterns optimization results under three scenarios: production, conservation, and trade-off. The results indicated that: (1) There were significant differences in the production benefits and ecological costs of cropping patterns. There were significant differences in the production benefits and ecological costs among cropping patterns. In terms of production benefits, double-cropping paddy rice achieved the highest score (0.91), followed by winter wheat-paddy rice (0.87) and winter rapeseed-paddy rice (0.84). Regarding ecological costs, winter wheat-soybean and winter rapeseed-soybean exhibited the lowest ecological pressure (both 0.37), while double-cropping paddy rice incurred the highest ecological cost. (2) The trade-off scenario, which balances food security with ecological conservation, was identified as the optimal solution. Winter wheat-paddy rice, winter rapeseed-paddy rice, winter wheat-soybean, and double-cropping paddy rice, which achieved relatively high comprehensive expected effects, were identified as viable alternatives for cropping pattern optimization on the Jianghan Plain, with their combined proportion adjusted from the current 11.9% to 32.6%. Spatially, double-cropping paddy rice is best suited to the southeastern Jianghan Plain, winter wheat-soybean is recommended for the central region, winter wheat-paddy rice is optimal for the southwestern area and along the Han River, and winter rapeseed-paddy rice is most appropriate for higher-altitude areas distant from rivers. This optimization ensures agricultural output while maximizing regional ecological positive benefits, achieving sustainable intensive agriculture. The proposed Bayesian Network framework enables plot-level spatial optimization of cropping patterns under multivariate and multi-scenario conditions, offering a technically feasible approach to optimizing cropping patterns from the dual perspectives of food security and ecological security. This approach enhances cropland use efficiency and provides actionable insights to optimize cropping patterns in comparable regions, while charting a viable pathway toward green, sustainable agricultural development and national food security.

     

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