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基于EnKF-WOA多变量同化的水稻生长过程模拟与产量估算

Rice growth simulation and yield estimation based on EnKF-WOA multivariate assimilation framework

  • 摘要: 利用无人机多源遥感监测数据同化作物生长模型,可以有效提升作物长势监测的尺度与产量估算的精度,支撑田间水肥精准调控。为进一步提高同化后模型的精度与参数一致性,该研究构建了集合卡尔曼滤波参数更新(ensemble Kalman filtering with parameter optimization by whale optimization algorithm,EnKF-WOA)同化框架,基于无人机遥感反演的叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)、地上部生物量(total above ground production,TAGP)和蒸腾量(transpiration,TRA),设置单变量、双变量和多变量共7种同化组合及4种序列同化窗口,评估不同变量组合与同化窗口对世界粮食研究(world food studies,WOFOST)模型水稻生长过程模拟和产量估算精度的影响,并与单一EnKF和WOA算法同化结果进行比较。结果表明,构建的EnKF-WOA同化框架可以依据模型集合的后验分析值同步更新模型状态变量与作物参数,产量估算精度整体上优于单一EnKF和WOA算法。在变量选择方面,LAI是单变量同化的最佳选择,仅在分蘖末期进行同化即可将产量估算的相对误差改善至-3.3%;双变量LAI+TRA的组合在不同同化窗口下表现稳定(相对误差为0.4%~5.2%),且模型集合的结果变异性随着同化窗口增加具有明显的降低趋势(变异系数由15.3%下降至9.1%);多变量LAI+TAGP+TRA的组合在4个同化窗口同化后可以实现全局的最优精度,相对误差仅为0.5%,同时模型集合的变异系数为4.3%。综合考虑达到较高模拟精度所需的同化次数,同化单变量LAI、双变量LAI+TRA可在分蘖末期实现产量的超前估算,指导田间管理的及时调整,而多变量LAI+TAGP+TRA策略需在拔节孕穗期同化以实现精准估计,适用于对不确定性要求严格的场景。该研究为遥感数据与作物生长模型同化提供了方法支撑与变量选择依据,对作物长势监测与产量估算具有重要实践价值。

     

    Abstract: Assimilating crop growth models with multi-source unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing observations provides an effective approach for improving the crop growth monitoring scope and yield estimation accuracy, thereby supporting precision regulation of water and fertilizer management. However, state-variable updating and parameter optimization are often implemented separately, which may cause inconsistency between the corrected crop state and the parameters that control subsequent model process. To further enhance the accuracy and stability of rice growth simulation, this study employed the Sobol method to screen yield-sensitive crop parameters within the WOFOST (world food studies) model—implemented in the PCSE (python crop simulation environment). Leaf lifespan at 35℃ (SPAN), maximum relative leaf area growth rate (RGRLAI), conversion efficiency of assimilates to storage organs (CVO), leaf maintenance respiration rate (RML), and dry matter weight at transplanting (TDWI) were selected for optimization. A collaborative assimilation framework (ensemble Kalman filtering with parameter optimization by whale optimization algorithm, EnKF-WOA) was further developed for the simultaneous updating of state variables and crop parameters by coupling ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) with the whale optimization algorithm (WOA). Based on UAV remote sensing retrievals of leaf area index (LAI), total above ground production (TAGP), and crop transpiration (TRA), a multi-variable and multi-window assimilation strategy was designed, including three univariate, three bivariate, and one multivariate strategy, were evaluated under four sequential assimilation-window settings (corresponding to the tillering stage, jointing-booting stage, heading-flowering stage and milking stage). The results showed that the WOFOST model after parameter localization could generally reproduce the seasonal process of LAI, TAGP and TRA, but still underestimated final yield with a relative error of -10.4%. The developed EnKF-WOA assimilation framework was able to update model state variables and corresponding crop parameters according to the posterior analysis values. Compared with the single EnKF and WOA algorithms, the coupled framework achieved better performance in both simulating rice growth dynamics and estimating final yield. In terms of variable selection, LAI was identified as the most effective variable for univariate assimilation. Assimilating LAI only at the tillering stage could reduce the relative error of yield estimation to -3.3%, indicating that LAI has strong potential for early yield prediction. For bivariate assimilation, the combination of LAI and TRA showed the most stable performance. The relative errors under all assimilation windows were 0.4%~5.2%, and the coefficient of variation decreased markedly from 15.3% to 9.1% as the number of assimilation windows increased. For multivariate assimilation, the combined assimilation of LAI, TAGP, and TRA achieved the best overall accuracy when four assimilation windows were used, with the relative error of 0.5%, and the coefficient of variation of 4.3%, demonstrating high estimation accuracy and lower uncertainty. Considering the number of assimilation windows required to achieve high accuracy, univariate LAI assimilation and bivariate LAI+TRA assimilation can provide early yield estimation at tillering stage, which is suitable for guiding timely adjustments to field management. In contrast, multivariate assimilation requires observations up to the jointing–booting stage to obtain more accurate yield estimation and lower uncertainty, which could be more suitable for scenarios with strict requirements for uncertainty. This study provides algorithm support and variables selection criteria for assimilating remote sensing data with crop growth models, holding significant practical value for monitoring crop growth and estimating yields.

     

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