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基于Meta分析与DNDC模型的东北黑土固碳潜力预测与管理措施优选——以梨树县为例

Prediction of the black soil carbon sequestration potential and optimal farm management recommendation based on Meta analysis and DNDC model--A case study in Lishu County

  • 摘要: 精准预测农田土壤固碳潜力对解析全球土壤碳循环和维系粮食安全具有重要意义。针对目前缺乏同时考虑气候变化与农田管理多情景的土壤碳储量预测研究等问题,该研究基于Meta分析方法初步筛选出1980—2024年有利于黑土区土壤有机碳(soil organic carbon, SOC)提升的管理措施,并采用DNDC(denitrification-decomposition)模型,设计考虑气候变化与黑土农田管理的多种情景模式,预测2025—2100年梨树县农田土壤固碳潜力并实现管理措施的优化选择。结果表明:1)Meta分析表明,施用有机肥对SOC储量的效应随施用量的增加而增加,且免耕/少耕、秸秆还田、化肥与有机肥组合措施均对SOC储量的提升作用明显;2)经本地化校正后的DNDC模型对SOC具有较高的拟合精度,SOC模拟值与实测值间的决定系数为0.93,均方根误差为0.60 g/kg;3)在未来气候情景下,有机肥、化肥与秸秆还田措施组合对SOC储量的提升最高,年均增长0.69%~1.18 %/a,可作为黑土区农田土壤固碳的优选措施。该研究结果可为东北黑土区农田土壤质量提升、可持续增产及气候变化应对策略制定提供科学依据和技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) stock plays an important role in the carbon (C) sequestration of agricultural soils. It has a great significance for global carbon cycle and food security. Currently, no country has achieved the expected goal of the “4 per 1000” initiative, which indicated that more farm practices and their combinations need to be explored to help C sequestration in agricultural soils. Meanwhile, the practices in farm management are also associated with climate change, and this presents a big challenge to estimate SOC in the past and future. However, the interactive effects of farm management and climate change on SOC storage have gained less attention, and the management measures which can address future climate change are need to be urgently recommended. In this study, Lishu County in Jilin Province was selected as the study region to predict soil carbon sequestration potential in the farmland. Firstly, based on 2275 comparisons of field observations collected from 187 published articles in the black soil region of Northeast China, agricultural practice-induced changes in SOC stocks were investigated through a meta-analysis method. The practices selected here included tillage (no-tillage (NT), reduced tillage (RT), and deep tillage (DT)), straw return (SR), manure fertilization (MF), and chemical fertilization (CF). Secondly, the temporal dynamics of SOC stock were verified and predicted in 1980-2024 and 2025-2100 under different farm managements by using DNDC model, respectively. Lastly, the multi-scenarios considering climate change and farm management strategies were designed to predict soil carbon sequestration potential in farmland of 2025-2100. The results showed that: 1) Compared with other three managements, MF had the greatest effect on the increase of SOC, with an increase of 19.44% when the application amounts <20 t/hm2, 23.97% in the 20~30 t/hm2, and 31.13% in the >30 t/hm2 groups of application amounts. The integration of MF with NT and RT clearly increased SOC, with the effect size increasing from 7.41% (NT) to 13.21% (NT+MF) and from 10.78% (RT) to 20.09% (RT+MF) respectively. For all the practices and their combinations, the greatest effect size (44.45%) was achieved under MF+CF combination when the MF application amount >30 t/hm2. A long application period (>10 a) had a greater effect (40.12%) on SOC sequestration than short application periods (<3 a (17.16%) and 3~10 a (20.34%)). CF+SR+MF practice made the effect larger than that from the separate practice, and its effect size all increased compared with that under separate CF practice across different duration periods. DNDC verification results indicated a significant linear relationship (R2=0.93, RMSE=0.60 g/kg) for all the SOC simulations compared with the measured values. Under the MF application amounts of 450 t/hm2, MF+CF, RT+MF, and MF+CF+SR practices all achieved a considerably high carbon sequestration effect on SOC in the short term (<3a). Moreover, MF+CF+SR could achieve a higher carbon sequestration effect on SOC in the medium term (3~10a) and long term (>10a) under the SR ratios of 1/3 or 1/2 conditions. There were significant differences in the effects of various farm managements on soil carbon sequestration in black soil region of Northeast China. MF practice had the most pronounced effect on the increasing of SOC storage. DNDC model can simulate the historical changes in soil carbon stocks with a high accuracy. It also had the ability to predict the farmland soil carbon sequestration potential under future climate scenarios. This research is of great importance for farmland soil quality improvement, sustainable increasing in yield, and formulation of climate change strategies in the black soil region of Northeast China.

     

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