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基于Meta分析与DNDC模型的东北黑土固碳潜力预测与管理措施优选——以梨树县为例

Predicting black soil carbon sequestration potential for optimal farm recommendation using meta-analysis and DNDC model: A case study in Lishu County

  • 摘要: 精准预测农田土壤固碳潜力对解析全球土壤碳循环和维系粮食安全具有重要意义。针对目前缺乏同时考虑气候变化与农田管理多情景的土壤碳储量预测研究等问题,该研究基于Meta分析方法初步筛选出1980—2024年有利于黑土区土壤有机碳(soil organic carbon, SOC)提升的管理措施,并采用DNDC(denitrification-decomposition)模型,设计考虑气候变化与黑土农田管理的多种情景模式,预测2025—2100年梨树县农田土壤固碳潜力并实现管理措施的优化选择。结果表明:1)Meta分析表明,施用有机肥对SOC储量的效应随施用量的增加而增加,且免耕/少耕、秸秆还田、化肥与有机肥组合措施均对SOC储量的提升作用明显;2)经本地化校正后的DNDC模型对SOC具有较高的拟合精度,SOC模拟值与实测值间的决定系数为0.93,均方根误差为0.60 g/kg;3)在未来气候情景下,有机肥、化肥与秸秆还田措施组合对SOC储量的提升最高,年均增长0.69%~1.18 %/a,可作为黑土区农田土壤固碳的优选措施。该研究结果可为东北黑土区农田土壤质量提升、可持续增产及气候变化应对策略制定提供科学依据和技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) stock can play an important role in the soil carbon (C) sequestration in sustainable agriculture. It is of great significance for the global carbon cycle and food security. Farm practices are often required to realize the C sequestration of the “4 per 1000” initiative in recent years. Meanwhile, some challenges also remain in estimating SOC under climate change. However, it is still lacking in the interaction effects of farm recommendation and climate change on SOC storage. This study aims to predict black soil carbon sequestration potential for optimal farm recommendation using meta-analysis and the denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model. A case study was taken of Lishu County in Jilin Province, China. Firstly, 2275 groups of field observations were collected from 187 articles in the black soil region of Northeast China. Agricultural practices were investigated in SOC stocks using meta-analysis, including tillage (no-tillage (NT), reduced tillage (RT), and deep tillage (DT)), straw return (SR), manure fertilization (MF), and chemical fertilization (CF). Secondly, the temporal dynamics of SOC stock were verified and then predicted in 1980-2024 and 2025-2100 under different farm practices using the DNDC model. Lastly, the multiple scenarios were designed to consider climate change and farm strategies. Soil carbon sequestration potential was predicted for the farmland in 2025-2100. The results showed that: 1) The MF shared the greatest effect on the increase of SOC, with an increase of 19.44%, when the application amounts <20 t/hm2, 23.97% in the 20-30 t/hm2, and 31.13% in the >30 t/hm2 groups of application amounts. The MF with NT and RT increased the SOC, with the effect size increasing from 7.41% (NT) to 13.21% (NT+MF) and from 10.78% (RT) to 20.09% (RT+MF), respectively. Among them, the greatest effect size (44.45%) was achieved under the MF+CF combination, with the MF application amount >30 t/hm2. A long application period (>10 a) shared a greater effect (40.12%) on SOC sequestration than short application periods (<3 a (17.16%) and 3-10 a (20.34%)). The CF+SR+MF combination made a larger effect than that from the separate practice, and all effect sizes increased over different duration periods, compared with the separate CF practice. DNDC model verified that there was a significant linear relationship (R2=0.93, RMSE=0.60 g/kg) for all the SOC simulations, compared with the measured values. All MF+CF, RT+MF, and MF+CF+SR practices achieved a considerably high carbon sequestration on the SOC in the short term (<3a) under the MF application amounts of 450 t/hm2. Moreover, the MF+CF+SR achieved a higher carbon sequestration on the SOC in the medium term (3-10a) and long term (>10a) under the SR ratios of 1/3 or 1/2 conditions. There were significant differences in the effects of various farm modes on soil carbon sequestration. MF practice shared the most outstanding increase in the SOC storage. The carbon sequestration potential was predicted in farmland under future climate scenarios. The DNDC model can be expected to simulate historical changes in the carbon stocks with high accuracy. This finding can provide a strong reference for the farmland quality and high yield under climate change in the black soil region of Northeast China.

     

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