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基于多源数据的冬小麦品种综合评价

Comprehensive scoring model for winter wheat based on multi-source data

  • 摘要: 为提高冬小麦品种筛选效率,该研究提出一种基于多源数据的冬小麦综合评分模型。以山东省德州市陵城区重点培育的31个冬小麦品种为试验对象,采集各生育期的表型信息和生长变化速率信息。利用正则马氏距离改进的皮尔逊(Pearson correlation coefficient)解析23项因子间的关联关系,识别变量间的潜在共线性风险,克服小样本数据中离群值对关联分析结果的干扰;在此基础上,开展共线性诊断,剔除冗余因子,筛选核心评价指标;最终利用主成分(principal component analysis, PCA)提取主成分因子,完成各品种的综合评分。结果表明:改进后的Pearson模型有效抑制了游离值的影响,当游离值占比15%时模型平均绝对误差为0.07,均方误差为0.008,经分析部分因子间的关联系数绝对值大于0.8,存在潜在共线性风险。经共线性检验筛选后,最终保留8项关键因子作为PCA的输入项。PCA模型成功提取4个主成分,累计贡献率超过99%,并为31种冬小麦综合评分,其中排名前5的品种为:鲁研373、鲁研951、济麦33、济麦34和济麦44。综合评分模型从冬小麦各生育期的静态长势与动态生长速率等角度,系统量化了各品种的产量和生长稳定性,可为区域短期冬小麦的育种筛选提供参考依据,提高了品种筛选效率。

     

    Abstract: Winter wheat is one of the most important grain crops in China, and its yield is of great significance to national food security. The yield of winter wheat is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including genotypic characteristics, growing environments, soil conditions, growth performance across all developmental stages, and field management practices; suboptimal growth at any stage can compromise the final yield. This study aimed to develop a comprehensive scoring model for winter wheat varieties based on multi-source data. Correlation and multicollinearity analyses were conducted on phenotypic factors and environmental adaptability factors across growth stages to remove redundant factors and retain core information. Principal component analysis (PCA) was then employed to extract principal components, and to generate scores and rankings for the tested varieties. Thirty-one key cultivated winter wheat varieties from Lingcheng District, Dezhou City, Shandong Province were selected as experimental materials. Eleven phenotypic factors and 12 growth rate factors were measured and collected throughout the entire growth period. The regularized Mahalanobis distance-improved Pearson model was adopted to analyze inter-factor correlations and quantify the mutual influence between factors. Potential multicollinearity risks among factors were identified based on the correlation coefficients. The improved Pearson model significantly enhanced its robustness against outliers in agricultural small-sample datasets. On this basis, multicollinearity analysis was performed using tolerance (TOL), variance inflation factor (VIF) and independent information content. Redundant factors with overlapping information or high correlation were excluded, and key input factors for PCA were obtained. Finally, principal components were extracted via PCA, and a principal component scoring formula was established to calculate variety scores and generate rankings. The improved Pearson model effectively mitigated the interference of outliers. When the outlier proportion reached 15%, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the model was 0.07, and the mean square error (MSE) was 0.008. Correlation analysis revealed that the absolute values of correlation coefficients among some factors exceeded 0.8, indicating potential multicollinearity risks. By integrating TOL, VIF and independent information content, 8 key factors were ultimately screened as input variables for PCA. The PCA model successfully extracted 4 principal components (with a cumulative variance contribution rate exceeding 99%) and comprehensively scored the 31 winter wheat cultivars. The top 5 cultivars ranked by comprehensive score were Luyan 373, Luyan 951, Jimai 33, Jimai 34, and Jimai 44. The comprehensive scoring model systematically quantified the yield potential and stability of each cultivar from the perspectives of static growth performance and dynamic growth rates across different developmental stages of winter wheat. Its scoring results can serve as a reference for short-term regional winter wheat breeding and screening. In the future, after multi-point and multi-year experimental verification, it can provide a more reliable decision-making tool for long-term intelligent wheat breeding and extension in the region.

     

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