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基于AHC模型的华北冬小麦水氮动态与作物生长模拟及参数率定

Simulation of water and nitrogen dynamics and crop growth and parameter calibration for winter wheat in North China based on AHC model

  • 摘要: 华北地区冬小麦生产面临水氮利用率低、环境损失严重等问题,亟需可靠的模拟工具支持精准管理。为深入解析冬小麦农田水氮迁移转化全过程,提高灌溉施肥的生产效率,该研究以2021—2022和2023—2024年的田间试验为基础,应用农业水文模型(Agro-Hydrological & Chemical and Crop systems simulator,AHC)模拟并分析了冬小麦农田的土壤水氮利用及作物生长动态,利用2023—2024年数据率定模型参数,利用2021—2022年数据独立验证,最终获得一套适用于该研究区的冬小麦模拟的参数集。结果表明,1)AHC模型能够较好地模拟冬小麦农田土壤水氮动态和作物生长过程。土壤含水量、铵态氮和硝态氮含量、作物生长指标(包括叶面积指数、地上部干物质量、株高)以及产量的模型模拟值与田间实测值高度吻合,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数介于0.52~0.98,决定系数(R2)在0.81~1.0之间,均处于较高水平。2)氨挥发约占氮损失总量(不含作物吸氮量)的50%,是氮损失的主要途径。综上,AHC模型能够较好地模拟华北地区冬小麦农田的土壤水氮动态与作物生长过程,为制定农田灌溉施氮等农业管理优化决策提供了可靠工具。

     

    Abstract: Winter wheat production in North China was characterized by low water and nitrogen use efficiency and substantial environmental losses. This study aimed to quantify coupled water and nitrogen transport and transformation within the soil–crop wheat system using an agro-hydrological model. Such insights are critical for formulating efficient irrigation and nutrient management strategies, improving resource use efficiency, and ensuring sustainable crop production. To quantify coupled water-nitrogen cycling in winter wheat fields across the North China Plain, two field experiments were carried out over the 2021—2022 and 2023—2024 winter wheat growing seasons, data from 2023—2024 was used for model calibration, and independent validation was performed using 2021—2022 observations. Field measurements included soil water content, ammonium nitrogen (NH4-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), leaf area index (LAI), aboveground dry biomass, plant height, and grain yield. These datasets were used to calibrate and validate the Agricultural Hydrological, Chemical and Crop Systems Simulator (AHC), a tool designed to simulate soil water movement, nitrogen transformation cycles, and crop growth dynamics. Site-specific parameters describing soil properties, crop traits and field management practices were incorporated into the model to accurately replicate actual field conditions accurately. Model performance was assessed using multiple statistical indicators, including mean relative error (MRE), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). These metrics jointly quantified the simulation accuracy of soil water dynamics, nitrogen cycling, and crop growth. Results demonstrated that the AHC model performed well in simulating the coupled soil–plant system across both growing seasons. For simulations of soil water content and nitrogen concentrations, MRE values ranged from -8.87% to -14.22% and -1.35 to -63.39%, while RMSE values ranged from 0.03 to 0.04 cm3/cm3 and 0.45 mg/kg to 2.47 mg/kg, respectively. NSE values ranged from 0.52 to 0.72 for soil water content and from 0.82 to 0.97 for nitrogen concentration, while R2 values were 0.83 to 0.88 and 0.93 to 0.99, respectively, revealing consistency between simulated and measured data. For crop growth variables (LAI, aboveground biomass, and plant height), MRE fell within 2.33% to 12.79%, NSE ranged from 0.71 to 0.99, and R2 consistently exceeded 0.90, which verified the model’s reliable capacity to capture crop growth dynamics. Nitrogen balance analysis further identified clear seasonal variations in nitrogen transformation and loss pathways. Estimated nitrate leaching losses reached 37.67 kg/hm2 and 28.14 kg/hm2 for the two seasons, which were mainly induced by deep soil water percolation. The results showed that ammonia volatilization dominated the nitrogen losses, contributing 51.8% and 52.3% of total N losses, whereas nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions accounted for 2.5% and 6.2%. By comparation, crop nitrogen uptake accounted for 74.1% and 78.2% of total applied N, showing that plant assimilation constituted the main pathway of nitrogen recovery in the cropping system. Soil water regimes and irrigation-nitrogen fertilization schedules significantly regulated nitrogen cycling and its overall balance in farmland ecosystems. Changes in soil water content altered nitrogen dynamic, which further influence nitrogen leaching and gaseous nitrogen losses in agricultural soils. In conclusion, the AHC model exhibited satisfactory performance in simulating soil water and nitrogen dynamics and crop growth processes in winter wheat fields across the North China Plain. Furthermore, the AHC model serves as a reliable tool to support optimized irrigation and nitrogen fertilization management decisions, as it can accurately quantify water and nitrogen cycling characteristics within winter wheat farmlands of the North China Plain.

     

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