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黄河流域高标准农田建设成效时空演变及驱动机制

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of high-standard farmland construction achievements in the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 精准揭示黄河流域高标准农田建设成效的时空演变规律及其驱动机制,对于优化区域资源配置、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。基于2010—2023年黄河流域9个省份60个城市的面板数据,构建高标准农田建设成效评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法评估观测年间高标准农田建设成效值,并借助基尼系数、莫兰指数、地理探测器等方法揭示其时空动态演变、区域差异、空间相关性以及驱动机制。结果表明,2010—2023年黄河流域高标准农田建设成效表现出全域性提升特征,形成上游低、中游中、下游高的阶梯式分化格局;流域间高标准农田建设成效差异呈逐渐缩小趋势,流域内差异程度从高到低顺序为上游、中游、下游;各地级市间高标准农田建设成效具有正向的空间相关性,且呈现正向空间聚集效应;黄河流域高标准农田建设成效的主要驱动因素依次为经济因子、社会因子和生态因子,且经济与社会协同发挥主导作用,生态因素在约束条件下促进联动突破,不同驱动力的差异化作用为分区分类施策提供了依据。

     

    Abstract: Regional resource allocation is often required to implement the strategy of “storing grain in the land” for national food security. This study aims to explore spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of high-standard farmland construction in the Yellow River Basin. Panel data were then collected from 60 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2023. An evaluation index system was constructed from five dimensions: infrastructure support, resource utilization, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, economic benefits, and social benefits. Entropy-weighted TOPSIS was employed to determine the yearly construction indexes for each city. Dagum Gini coefficient was used to identify the primary sources of intra- and inter-regional disparities and their evolution trends. Moran’s I index was utilized to test spatial correlation. Geographical Detector Model was applied to assess the explanatory power of each factor—from economic, social, and ecological dimensions—on the spatial differentiation of construction. Additionally, their interactions were analyzed to identify cumulative or nonlinear enhancement among factors. The results indicate that the construction of high-standard farmland shared a trend of improvement in the entire basin. A stepped gradient pattern was characterized by upstream lagging, the middle reaches in the middle, and the downstream leading; the Gini coefficient showed a continuous downward trend over the entire basin, where interregional disparities were the primary source of the variation, although their contribution decreased gradually; There was significant positive spatial autocorrelation in high-standard farmland construction over prefecture-level cities. The patterns with the high levels were concentrated in the lower reaches, while those with low levels were distributed in ecologically fragile areas of the upper reaches. In terms of driving factors, the explanatory power of spatial differentiation was ranked in the descending order of the economic > social > ecological factors in high-standard farmland construction. Among them, the level of fiscal investment was the dominant driving variable in land use differentiation. Although ecological factors had limited explanatory power, there was significant two-factor enhancement when interacting with economic and social factors. Ecological constraints were primarily utilized to moderate the conversion efficiency of economic and social investments. The driving mechanism behind spatiotemporal evolution was synergistically dominated by economic and social factors, with breakthroughs achieved by ecological factors under constraints. Differentiated roles of these various driving forces provided empirical evidence to implement region- and category-specific decision-making on high-standard farmland construction. Therefore, a gradient collaboration mechanism was established to narrow spatial disparities among the upper, middle, and lower reaches; Digital technology is expected for accurate, area-specific control; Ecological-economic synergy is also suitable for the various ecological constraints over the basin; The findings can provide a strong reference for long-term maintenance to realize high-standard farmland construction.

     

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