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黄河流域高标准农田建设成效时空演变及驱动机制

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of high-standard farmland construction achievements in the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 精准揭示黄河流域高标准农田建设成效的时空演变规律及其驱动机制,对于优化区域资源配置、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。基于2010—2023年黄河流域9个省份60个城市的面板数据,构建高标准农田建设成效评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法评估观测年间高标准农田建设成效值,并借助基尼系数、莫兰指数、地理探测器等方法揭示其时空动态演变、区域差异、空间相关性以及驱动机制。结果表明,2010—2023年黄河流域高标准农田建设成效表现出全域性提升特征,形成上游低、中游中、下游高的阶梯式分化格局;流域间高标准农田建设成效差异呈逐渐缩小趋势,流域内差异程度从高到低顺序为上游、中游、下游;各地级市间高标准农田建设成效具有正向的空间相关性,且呈现正向空间聚集效应;黄河流域高标准农田建设成效的主要驱动因素依次为经济因子、社会因子和生态因子,且经济与社会协同发挥主导作用,生态因素在约束条件下促进联动突破,不同驱动力的差异化作用为分区分类施策提供了依据。

     

    Abstract: Accurately revealing the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of the construction of high-standard farmland in the Yellow River Basin is of great significance for optimizing regional resource allocation, implementing the strategy of “storing grain in the land,” and ensuring national food security. This study uses panel data from 60 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2023 to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system based on five dimensions: infrastructure support, resource utilization, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, economic benefits, and social benefits. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method was employed to comprehensively measure the construction outcomes for each city in each year. The Dagum Gini coefficient was used to identify the primary sources of intra- and inter-regional disparities and their evolution trends. The Moran’s I index was utilized to test spatial correlation, and the Geographical Detector Model was applied to assess the explanatory power of each factor—from economic, social, and ecological dimensions—on the spatial differentiation of construction outcomes. Additionally, interactions were analyzed to identify cumulative or nonlinear enhancement effects among factors. The results indicate that from 2010 to 2023, the construction outcomes of high-standard farmland in the Yellow River Basin showed a trend of improvement across the entire basin, forming a stepped gradient pattern characterized by the upstream lagging behind, the middle reaches in the middle, and the downstream leading; The Gini coefficient for the entire basin showed a continuous downward trend, with interregional disparities being the primary source of overall variation, although their contribution gradually decreased; there was significant positive spatial autocorrelation in construction outcomes across prefecture-level cities, with cities with high outcomes primarily concentrated in the lower reaches, while those with low outcomes were mostly distributed in ecologically fragile areas of the upper reaches. In terms of driving factors, the explanatory power of the three types of factors for spatial differentiation in construction outcomes is ranked as follows: economic factors are the strongest, followed by social factors, and ecological factors are relatively weak. Among these, the level of fiscal investment is the core driving variable influencing outcome differentiation. Although ecological factors have limited explanatory power on their own, they produce a significant two-factor enhancement effect when interacting with economic and social factors, indicating that ecological constraints primarily exert their influence by moderating the conversion efficiency of economic and social investments. The synergistic dominance of economic and social factors, coupled with the breakthroughs achieved by ecological factors under constraints, collectively constitute the driving mechanism behind the spatiotemporal evolution of high-standard farmland construction outcomes in the Yellow River Basin. The differentiated roles of these various driving forces provide empirical evidence for implementing region-specific and category-specific policies. Therefore, we propose establishing a gradient-based collaboration mechanism among the upper, middle, and lower reaches to narrow spatial disparities in outcomes; leveraging digital technology to enable precise, zone-specific management and control; exploring pathways for ecological-economic synergy to adapt to varying ecological constraints across the basin; and improving long-term management and maintenance mechanisms to ensure the sustained realization of construction outcomes.

     

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