Abstract: Compound drought, characterized by the concurrent occurrence of atmospheric water deficit and soil moisture shortage, has emerged as a critical factor constraining agricultural productivity and crop yield under increasing climate variability. Currently, a systematic understanding of how crop productivity responds to such multifaceted stress, as well as the associated quantitative loss risks, remains highly limited. To address this knowledge gap, this study focuses on the primary winter wheat production regions in China to investigate the response characteristics of crop productivity under compound drought conditions. To systematically detect and categorize drought events, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) were utilized to identify meteorological drought and soil drought, respectively. Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) derived from high-resolution remote sensing data was employed as a robust indicator to represent winter wheat productivity at the regional scale. Furthermore, a Vine Copula model, recognized for its advantage in modeling complex multivariate dependencies, was applied to quantify the conditional probability distribution of winter wheat GPP loss under various single and compound drought scenarios.The systematic analysis yielded several key findings: 1) From a temporal perspective, meteorological drought in the major winter wheat production regions has generally exhibited an alleviating trend from 2000 to 2020. In contrast, soil drought has shown an increasing occurrence frequency since 2006. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of these two drought types are not completely synchronized, implying complex underlying eco-hydrological processes beyond mere precipitation deficits. Spatial analysis indicates that high-frequency zones for compound drought are predominantly concentrated in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, with 2011, 2014, and 2019 identified as typical compound drought years. 2) Winter wheat productivity exhibits varying sensitivities to different drought types. Compared to meteorological drought, winter wheat GPP shows a significantly stronger and more sensitive response to soil drought conditions, highlighting the dominant role of soil water availability in regulating crop photosynthetic activity. During the typical compound drought event in 2011, regions experiencing substantial GPP reductions were mainly located in the southern Huang-Huai Plain and the Jiang-Huai region. This spatial distribution aligns closely with areas affected by severe and extreme compound drought during the same period. 3) The probabilistic assessment demonstrates that as drought severity progresses from mild to extreme levels, the probability of winter wheat GPP loss shows a consistent upward trend under both single and compound drought scenarios. Most importantly, compound drought stress significantly elevates the risk of productivity decline compared to single drought events. Specifically, under moderate and severe compound drought conditions, the probability of winter wheat productivity loss increases by 20% to 35% relative to single drought types.In conclusion, this research provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of winter wheat productivity responses to meteorological-soil compound drought. These findings highlight the amplifying effect of compound drought on agricultural productivity risks, offering a vital scientific foundation for improving drought monitoring, conducting agricultural risk assessments, and optimizing disaster mitigation strategies in major winter wheat production areas.