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人口收缩视域下东北黑土区农业“功能-韧性”耦合演变过程与机理

Agricultural "Function-Resilience" Coupling Evolution and Its Mechanism in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China under Population Shrinkage

  • 摘要: 东北黑土区作为国家粮食安全的“压舱石”,在人口收缩常态化背景下,探究其农业“功能—韧性”耦合演化机理具有重要战略意义。本研究以东北黑土区21个盟市为研究单元,基于2008—2022年面板数据,构建评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型、核密度分析及典型模式归纳法开展实证研究。结果表明:1)研究期内,农业多功能在波动中保持稳定,有效发挥了“稳压器”作用;农业韧性显著增强,特别是转型力的提升,反映出系统通过要素重组,实现了从功能保障向动态适应阶段的迈进。2)二者耦合协调度整体呈波动上升态势,空间上形成以哈长城市群为核心、边缘盟市低位运行的“中部高、四周低”格局。哈尔滨、大庆等中部城市处于协调发展带,而七台河、锡林郭勒盟等边缘区域则长期处于低水平协调陷阱。3)不同人口收缩类型区演化轨迹分化明显,全域收缩型区域受城乡要素同步流失冲击,耦合水平改善滞缓;乡村主导收缩型区域展现出显著的路径依赖特征,要素替代效率决定其转型成效。研究凝练出增长极引领、资本技术替代、系统性衰退与发展脱钩四种典型演化模式,揭示了其背后的结构赋能、路径依赖、低水平锁定与传导阻滞四大底层机理。研究结果可为人口收缩背景下黑土区差异化政策制定提供理论依据与实证参考。

     

    Abstract: As the“ballast stone”of national food security, the black soil region of Northeast China is experiencing a continuously shrinking population, characterized by rural labor outmigration, urban population stagnation, and an aging agricultural workforce. In this context, exploring the coupling evolution mechanism between agricultural multifunctionality and resilience has become a critical strategic issue. In this study, 21 leagues and cities in the black soil region were taken as research units, utilizing panel data from 2008 to 2022. An evaluation index system was constructed covering four dimensions of agricultural multifunctionality (product supply, economic development, social security, and ecological services) and three dimensions of agricultural resilience (resistance, adaptability, and transformability), totaling 40 indicators. The coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, kernel density estimation, and typical case induction were employed for empirical analysis. A three-step analytical strategy was implemented to evaluate the performance: a parallel comparative analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution of multifunctionality and resilience; the CCD between the two systems was then quantified; finally, four typical cases (Changchun, Daqing, Qitaihe, and Xilingol League) were selected to distill the evolution modes and underlying mechanisms. The results demonstrated that agricultural multifunctionality remained relatively stable amidst fluctuations, with an average value of approximately 0.357, effectively serving as a “stabilizer” for the regional agricultural system. Agricultural resilience exhibited a pronounced stepwise upward trend, increasing from 0.285 in 2008 to 0.315 in 2022, representing a cumulative improvement of 10.5%. Notably, the transformative capacity showed the most significant increase, indicating that the system had transitioned from basic functional maintenance to a dynamic adaptation stage through factor reorganization, technological substitution, and structural optimization. The CCD between multifunctionality and resilience showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, with the regional mean increasing from 0.554 to 0.560, maintaining a barely coordinated level. Spatially, a stable pattern of “high in the central core, low in the peripheral areas” emerged, centered on the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration. Harbin achieved a moderately coordinated level (0.719), followed by Daqing (0.672), Suihua (0.655), Changchun (0.642), and Jiamusi (0.610) at the primary coordinated level. In contrast, marginal areas such as Xilingol League (0.453) and Qitaihe (0.414) remained trapped in an “on the verge of disorder” state. Significant differentiation was observed among areas with different population shrinkage types. The comprehensive shrinking areas, impacted by the simultaneous outflow of both urban and rural factors, showed sluggish improvement in coupling levels, with resource-based cities like Qitaihe remaining in long-term near-disorder states. The rural-dominant shrinking areas exhibited pronounced path dependence, where factor substitution efficiency—particularly the replacement of labor by capital and technology—determined the success of systemic transformation. Jiamusi successfully transitioned from barely coordinated to primary coordinated, while Shuangyashan showed limited improvement, highlighting divergent transformation pathways under similar population pressures. Based on the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and the comparative analysis of typical cases, four typical evolution modes were distilled: growth pole leading, capital-technology substitution, systemic recession, and development decoupling. Furthermore, four underlying mechanisms were revealed: structural empowerment, path dependence, low-level locking, and transmission blockage. These findings can provide a theoretical basis and empirical reference for formulating differentiated agricultural policies under the context of population shrinkage, emphasizing the need for factor reallocation, technological substitution, and institutional innovation tailored to specific regional conditions.

     

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