高级检索+

中国典型粮食主产区耕地景观细碎化对农业全要素生产率的影响

Effects of cropland landscape fragmentation on agricultural total factor productivity in typical major grain-producing areas of China

  • 摘要: 耕地空间格局是农业生产组织的重要基础,但景观细碎化与农业全要素生产率之间的关系及其作用条件仍需进一步检验。基于2011—2023年中国典型粮食主产区749个县级行政单元面板数据,采用随机前沿分析测算农业全要素生产率(agricultural total factor productivity, ATFP),并利用30 m土地覆盖数据和8项景观指标构建耕地景观细碎化指数,运用双向固定效应、分组回归和面板门槛模型分析其总体关系、空间异质性及非线性特征。结果表明:耕地景观细碎化与ATFP总体呈显著负向关系,基准回归系数为−0.101,稳健性检验结果一致;该负向关系在南方地区和高地形起伏区显著,在北方地区及低、中度起伏区不显著;灌溉强度存在显著单一门槛,门槛值为0.199,低于该值时二者关系不显著,高于该值后负向关系显著。研究表明,县域景观尺度下耕地细碎化的效率影响具有明显的区域、地形和灌溉条件依赖性,耕地空间优化应结合自然与生产条件,协同推进农田基础设施和经营组织改善。

     

    Abstract: Cropland spatial configuration is an important component of the physical organization of agricultural production, yet the relationship between cropland landscape fragmentation and agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP), as well as the conditions under which this relationship becomes significant, remains insufficiently understood. This study examined that relationship at the county landscape scale using a balanced panel of 749 county-level administrative units in seven typical major grain-producing provinces of China from 2011 to 2023, comprising 9,737 county-year observations. ATFP was estimated with a stochastic frontier analysis based on a translog production function, using primary-industry value added as output and crop sown area, agricultural labor, and total power of agricultural machinery as inputs. Cropland landscape fragmentation was measured from the 30 m China Land Cover Dataset. Eight landscape metrics describing patch size, shape, division, and connectivity were calculated, standardized, and synthesized by principal component analysis to construct a composite cropland fragmentation index. A two-way fixed-effects model with county and year fixed effects was used to estimate the average relationship between landscape fragmentation and ATFP. Robustness was assessed by replacing the fragmentation indicator, replacing the ATFP measure, and using a one-period lag of the fragmentation index. Subgroup regressions were further conducted for northern and southern regions and for areas with low, medium, and high topographic relief. A fixed-effects panel threshold model was then applied to test whether irrigation intensity altered the relationship between fragmentation and ATFP, with the threshold significance evaluated using 300 bootstrap replications. The results showed that cropland landscape fragmentation was significantly and negatively associated with ATFP after county and year fixed effects and socioeconomic controls were included. The baseline coefficient of the fragmentation index was −0.101, and the direction of the relationship remained unchanged in the robustness tests. However, this negative relationship was not spatially uniform. It was statistically significant in southern China but insignificant in northern China. Similarly, the coefficient was significant in areas with high topographic relief, whereas no significant relationship was detected in low- and medium-relief areas. These results indicated that the efficiency implications of landscape fragmentation depended strongly on geographical and production conditions rather than representing a universal effect. The threshold analysis provided further evidence of such conditionality. Irrigation intensity exhibited a significant single threshold at 0.199, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.190–0.210 and a bootstrap p-value of 0.017. When irrigation intensity was at or below the threshold, the coefficient of landscape fragmentation was not statistically significant. When irrigation intensity exceeded 0.199, the coefficient became significantly negative (−0.119), suggesting that fragmentation was more strongly associated with lower ATFP where agricultural production relied more heavily on coordinated irrigation infrastructure and spatially continuous production conditions. Overall, the findings show that, at the county landscape scale, cropland fragmentation is related to agricultural production efficiency in a distinctly context-dependent manner, with the relationship varying across regions, terrain conditions, and irrigation support levels. The results should therefore not be interpreted as direct evidence of farm-level tenure or operational fragmentation mechanisms. Improving agricultural efficiency requires coordinated attention to cropland spatial configuration, farmland infrastructure, and production organization rather than a uniform policy of reducing landscape fragmentation.

     

/

返回文章
返回