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融合多源环境要素的柔鱼资源预测及驱动因子智能解析

Intelligent prediction of Ommastrephes bartramii resources and analysis of driving factors by integrating multi-source environmental elements

  • 摘要: 西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)作为重要的经济头足类,其资源分布受多源海洋环境因子协同调控。然而,传统模型在应对此类问题时面临显著局限:受限于渔获数据固有的稀疏性与零膨胀问题,导致初始信息失真;另一方面,模型本身难以准确表达环境与资源间的复杂非线性关系,从而制约了高精度预测与复杂机理解析。为此,该研究构建了一个融合多源环境要素的柔鱼资源预测与智能解析的深度学习框架。方法上,集成2015–2019年多源卫星遥感环境数据与渔获数据,提出的框架包括三大核心模块:通过改进TimeXer模型,引入交叉注意力机制对多环境变量和历史渔获数据的复杂关联信息进行协同表达,并通过门控机制实现其自适应融合,提升单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch Per Unit Effort,CPUE)预测精度;结合LightGBM进行渔获层级分类,在判别渔区基础上实现资源丰度等级的细粒度分类,缓解数据不平衡问题;并基于SHAP可解释技术量化环境因子贡献与交互效应,对关键驱动因子进行分析。结果表明,模型在测试集上决定系数R20.9722,均方误差MSE为0.0308,显著优于主流深度学习模型;识别出叶绿素a浓度(0.1~0.5 mg/m3)、盐度(33.0~33.5 PSU)、水温(15.0~22.0 ℃)、溶解氧与海平面高度为核心环境驱动因子;SHAP交互分析进一步揭示了盐度垂直分层与纬度、叶绿素a与盐度、盐度与溶解氧之间的强协同机制。研究结果为柔鱼资源动态预测与多环境因子协同驱动机制解析提供了可解释、高精度的新范式,支撑渔业资源可持续管理决策。

     

    Abstract: The neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) is an economically important cephalopod species in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, whose spatial distribution and abundance are synergistically regulated by multiple marine environmental factors. However, traditional modeling approaches face significant limitations in addressing such challenges: they are constrained by the inherent sparsity and zero-inflation problems of fishery catch data, leading to distortions in initial information representation; moreover, these models struggle to accurately capture the complex nonlinear relationships between environmental conditions and resource dynamics, thereby limiting high-precision prediction and mechanistic interpretation. To overcome these limitations, this study developed a novel deep learning framework that integrates multi-source environmental elements for simultaneous prediction and intelligent interpretation of squid resources. Methodologically, we integrated multi-annual (2015–2019) satellite-derived environmental data and fishery catch records. The proposed framework consists of three core modules:An enhanced TimeXer-based prediction module was constructed by incorporating a cross-attention mechanism to effectively capture complex interdependencies between multi-source environmental variables—including sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and sea surface height (SSH) at multiple depths (0 m, 100 m, 200 m, and 300 m)—and historical Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) sequences. An adaptive gating mechanism was further employed to dynamically fuse these heterogeneous information streams, significantly improving CPUE prediction accuracy.A hierarchical classification module based on LightGBM was implemented to mitigate data imbalance issues. This module performs a two-stage classification: first distinguishing fishing from non-fishing areas, followed by fine-grained categorization of resource abundance levels (Few, Little, Mid, Most) within identified fishing zones.An interpretability module leveraging SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values was integrated to quantitatively assess the marginal contributions and interaction effects of each environmental factor, enabling a transparent and systematic analysis of key drivers underlying squid distribution patterns.Experimental results demonstrated the superior performance of our framework. On an independent test set, it achieved an R2 of 0.9722 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0308, significantly outperforming several state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformer, Crossformer, FEDformer) across multiple metrics (MSE, RMSE, MAE, MRE). SHAP analysis identified chlorophyll-a concentration (optimal range: 0.1–0.5 mg/m3), sea surface salinity (33.0–33.5 PSU), sea surface temperature (15.0–22.0  ℃), dissolved oxygen, and sea surface height as the primary environmental drivers governing the formation of high-catch areas. Crucially, SHAP interaction analysis uncovered significant synergistic effects, particularly between vertical salinity stratification and latitude, chlorophyll-a and salinity, and salinity and dissolved oxygen, revealing a complex "dynamic–nutrient–physicochemical" mechanism underpinning squid aggregation.This study provides an interpretable, high-precision paradigm for forecasting squid resource dynamics and deciphering the synergistic driving mechanisms of multi-environmental factors. The framework not only offers a robust tool for sustainable fishery management but also delivers profound insights into the ecological habits of O. bartramiiunder rapid environmental change, supporting scientific decision-making for the conservation and utilization of oceanic fishery resources.

     

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