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基于非线性温度响应的中国冬油菜发育模拟及时空动态

Simulation and spatio-temporal dynamics of winter oilseed rape development in China based on nonlinear temperature response

  • 摘要: 基于欧美春油菜的国际模型在模拟中国冬油菜时存在适应性不足。为提高发育期模拟精度,该研究基于中国农业气象模式(Chinese AgroMeteorological Model, CAMM)的温度-日序(temperature-accumulated day, TAd)算法,通过引入指数形式的温度效率系数,构建了非线性温度响应发育模型(eTAd)。利用2000—2024年研究区85个农业气象观测站数据对模型进行校准与验证,并基于中国气象局陆面数据同化系统格点气象数据(2009—2024年,5 km)驱动模型,采用改进的空间插值方法实现参数区域化,模拟分析了研究区冬油菜主要发育期的时空分布特征。结果表明:模型改进使出苗—开花阶段均方根误差由10.00 d降至8.89 d,降幅11.1%;出苗—开花阶段热量阈值参数呈“南高北低”的纬向分布,反映了南方温暖地区因春化不完全而需更多热量积累的生理机制;开花—成熟阶段热量阈值参数高值区分布于云南高原、四川盆地及长江中下游地区;2009—2024年间,研究区冬油菜开花期显著提前0.97 d/a(P<0.01),成熟期2015—2024年显著提前0.77 d/a(P<0.05),出苗期趋势不显著(P>0.05)。eTAd模型为冬油菜发育期模拟提供了一种有效工具,所揭示的物候变化规律可为品种区划、播期调整及花期旅游服务提供参考。

     

    Abstract: International crop models have been developed using European and American spring oilseed rape varieties. However, the adaptability of these models is limited when applied to winter oilseed rape in China, due to the nonlinear temperature responses associated with vernalization requirements. In this study, a nonlinear temperature-driven development model was proposed to improve the simulation accuracy at the developmental stages using the Temperature-Accumulated day (TAd) algorithm of the Chinese AgroMeteorological Model (CAMM). An exponential temperature efficiency coefficient k_T\text=exp(-k\timesT_A) was introduced to quantify the nonlinear temperature response. The improved model was calibrated and termed eTAd (exponential TAd). Phenological and meteorological data were captured from 85 agro-meteorological stations over 12 winter oilseed rape-producing provinces during 2000–2024. A grid search method was employed to optimize the temperature efficiency parameter k for different developmental stages. The optimal k values were determined as 0.06 for the emergence-to-anthesis stage, 0 for the anthesis-to-maturity stage, and 0.04 for the sowing-to-emergence stage (where k=0 reduced the eTAd model to the original TAd). Regional simulations were conducted using the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS). Meteorological data were gridded at 5 km resolution in the period of 2009–2024. Parameter regionalization was implemented using an improved spatial interpolation, LABdIDW, with the latitude, altitude, and base distance as weighting factors. Mean absolute error was reduced by 5.0% for the thermal threshold parameter at the emergence-to-anthesis stage interpolation, compared with the conventional inverse distance weighting (IDW). The performance of the eTAd model was evaluated using both back-substitution and independent-sample validation. The values were closely comparable at all growth stages; Specifically, the RMSE values were 8.89 and 9.10 d, and the coefficients of determination (R2) were 0.64 and 0.60, respectively, at the emergence-to-anthesis stage, indicating better extrapolation without significant overfitting. Compared with the original TAd model (k=0), the eTAd model reduced the RMSE from 10.00 to 8.89 d at the emergence-to-anthesis stage, with an 11.1% reduction. The best performance was obtained in the high-temperature zone, with an RMSE reduction of 16.77% (from 11.81 to 9.83 d), followed by the moderate-temperature zone (10.46%), while the low-temperature zone exhibited only a minor change (0.89%). The deviation of the original model was correlated with high-temperature zones. The thermal threshold parameter exhibited a “high in the south, low in the north” latitudinal pattern at the emergence-to-anthesis stage, indicating the physiological mechanism that warmer southern regions required greater heat accumulation for anthesis due to incomplete vernalization. The high values were found in the thermal threshold parameter for the anthesis-to-maturity stage in the Yunnan Plateau, the Sichuan Basin, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, indicating the heat stress effects on grain filling. The anthesis date advanced significantly at a rate of 0.97 d/a (P<0.01) during 2009–2024, equivalent to an accumulated advancement of 14 days over the 17-year period. The maturity date exhibited significant advancement at a rate of 0.77 d/a (P<0.05) during 2015–2024, while the emergence date showed no significant trend. The regional disparities of anthesis were observed in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Henan provinces, while Jiangsu and Anhui showed no significant trends. The maturity date shared a north-south divergence, where Jiangsu exhibited a significant delay, whereas Hubei and Sichuan shared significant advancements. The emergence-to-maturity duration also shortened significantly at a rate of 0.30 d/a (P=0.016). These phenological variations led to a restructured growth period, where the vegetative phase shortened markedly. The eTAd model can provide a reliable tool to simulate winter oilseed rape developmental stages. The phenological patterns can offer valuable insights into variety zoning, sowing date adjustment, and flowering-period tourism services under climate change.

     

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