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基于1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN的肉鸭养殖环境温度预测模型

A temperature prediction model for meat duck breeding environment based on CNN-BiLSTM-DQN

  • 摘要: 针对传统温度预测方法难以充分捕捉温度序列中的局部特征与长期趋势,导致模型预测性能不佳等问题,该研究提出一种基于一维卷积神经网络(one-dimensional convolutional neural network,1DCNN)和双向长短记忆神经网络(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)与深度Q网络(deep Q-network,DQN)融合的1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN温度预测模型。在建模过程中,考虑到温度时序信号蕴含多尺度变化特征,因此通过离散傅里叶变换将温度时序信号分解为高频分量和低频分量。鉴于高频分量主要反映短期波动,因此利用1DCNN对高频分量提取局部特征;而低频分量主要反应长期波动,因此利用BiLSTM对低频分量提取长序列的依赖特征。随后,将两部分特征采用拼接模型实现特征融合,最后通过全连接层映射得出温度预测值。在此基础上,引入DQN搭建智能体实现模型超参数的迭代优化,DQN智能体以8维状态空间、12维动作空间构建自适应优化机制,实现对学习率、隐藏层数量、Dropout率、网络结构等关键超参数动态寻优,提升模型在季节交替,极端天气场景下的预测鲁棒性。利用该模型对网养鸭舍采集的舍内外温度数据进行预测。对比试验表明,该模型的决定系数R2为0.99,最优输入步长为48,平均绝对误差、均方根误差指标优于时间卷积网络(Temporal Convolutional Network,TCN)、Transformer等传统模型。由此可知,该研究提出的1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN模型可实现鸭舍温度的预测,为鸭舍环境提前调控,降低肉鸭的环境应激风险提供数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: China had the largest meat duck industry, accounting for over 82% of the global total slaughter volume of meat ducks. The air temperature in the meat duck breeding environment was crucial to the comfort and survival of the ducks. The air temperature was susceptible to multiple factors such as relative humidity and illumination intensity. Therefore, it was significant to grasp timely and accurately the change of the air temperature which could improve the quality and economic returns, and optimize breeding management. Grasping the trend of the air temperature value timely and accurately was the key to the high-density healthy breeding in duck houses. However, traditional temperature prediction methods had problems such as low prediction accuracy, poor robustness, and poor generalization ability, etc.To achieve accurate prediction of duck-house temperature, this study proposed a hybrid 1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN model integrating a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1DCNN), a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM), and a deep Q-network (DQN).During the model construction, considering that the temperature time series signal contained multi-scale variation characteristics, the signal was decomposed into high-frequency and low-frequency components via the discrete Fourier transform (DFT).Given that the high-frequency component mainly reflected short-term fluctuations, the 1DCNN was used to extract local features from the high-frequency component; whereas the low-frequency component mainly reflected long-term fluctuations, the BiLSTM was used to extract long-sequence dependency features from the low-frequency component.Subsequently, the two sets of features were fused using a concatenation model, and finally the temperature prediction value was obtained through the mapping of a fully connected layer.Based on this, the DQN algorithm was introduced to construct an agent for iterative optimization of the model hyperparameters. The agent established an adaptive optimization mechanism with an 8-dimensional state space and a 12-dimensional action space, enabling dynamic optimization of key hyperparameters such as the learning rate, number of hidden layers, dropout rate, and network architecture, thereby improving the prediction robustness of the model under scenarios of seasonal transitions and extreme weather.The indoor and outdoor temperature data of net-raised duck houses were collected, and the model was used to predict the indoor and outdoor temperatures of the net-raised duck houses.The proposed model was used to predict the indoor and outdoor temperature variations of net-raised duck houses in Gaoyou City, Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province, from March 22, 2025, to March 22, 2026. The results demonstrate that the 1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN model achieves a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.993 with an optimal input step size of 48.Its metrics, including MAE, and RMSE, are superior to those of traditional models such as the Temporal Convolutional Network and Transformer.Specifically, Under different weather conditions, compared to the fixed-hyperparameter 1DCNN-BiLSTM model, the 1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN model exhibits the following improvements: on cloudy days, the MAE decreases from 0.29℃ to 0.18℃, the RMSE decreases from 0.36℃ to 0.23℃, and the R2 increases from 0.77 to 0.91; on sunny days, the MAE decreases from 0.48℃ to 0.23℃, the RMSE decreases from 0.59℃ to 0.31℃, and the R2 increases from 0.79 to 0.94; on rainy days, the MAE decreases from 0.54℃ to 0.33℃, the RMSE decreases from 0.70℃ to 0.46℃, and the R2 increases from 0.72 to 0.89.The experimental results show that the proposed 1DCNN-BiLSTM combined prediction model achieves better prediction performance compared to traditional models such as BiLSTM, 1DCNN, TCN, and Transformer.In summary, the 1DCNN-BiLSTM-DQN model proposed in this study can predict the temperature in duck houses, providing data support for early environmental regulation and reducing the risk of environmental stress in meat ducks.

     

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