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高标准农田建设下农地流转三方利益主体的演化博弈及仿真分析

Evolutionary game and simulation analysis of tripartite interest subjects in farmland transfer under well-facilitated farmland construction

  • 摘要: 解析高标准农田建设下政府、受让方与小农户三方利益主体在农地流转中的演化博弈关系,揭示不同建设模式与关键变量对农地流转及规模经营的影响机制。构建三方演化博弈模型,结合兴安盟实际案例数据,通过Matlab数值仿真模拟,对比分析政府直接投资与先建后补两种模式下的演化路径,并探究水田与旱地分异情景。结果发现:1)相较政府直接投资,先建后补模式下三方主体向均衡点(1,1,1)协同演化速率明显增加,引入声誉激励后速率再次提升;但若补贴过低,则受让方策略转向不受让;2)关键变量及风险偏好呈现差异化影响:正向驱动因素(流转年限延长、粮价提升)加速收敛;负向抑制因素(管护成本增加、转入成本上升)延缓演化;临界调控因素(亩均投资、流转租金)需避免过高导致边际效益递减;受让方能承受更大风险收益比、期望效用更高的主体,更愿参与“先建后补”项目;3)水田经营中先建后补模式为较优情景,三方演化速率最快,旱地经营则需强化补贴以缓解受让方自筹压力。建议适当推广先建后补模式并优先布局水田建设,科学把控关键因素,实施区域差异化政策,健全法治与多方协作机制,以推动农地有序流转与粮食安全目标实现。

     

    Abstract: This study investigates the complex strategic interactions among three core stakeholders—the government, land transferees (new agricultural operators), and smallholder farmers—within the framework of well-facilitated farmland (high-standard farmland) construction in China. It aims to decipher the evolutionary dynamics of farmland transfer and to reveal the underlying mechanisms through which distinct construction models and key economic-agronomic variables influence the process of land consolidation and scaled operations. The analytical foundation is a tripartite evolutionary game model, grounded in the theory of bounded rationality. The model conceptualizes the government as a policy initiator pursuing socio-economic benefits, smallholders as land suppliers weighing transfer rents against farming income, and transferees as scale-seeking entities evaluating costs, subsidies, and risks.The research is empirically anchored in a case study of Xing’an League in Inner Mongolia, a pioneering region for county-wide high-standard farmland construction. The model integrates field-based data, incorporating parameters such as per-mu construction investment, maintenance costs, grain prices, yield increments, transfer rents, and subsidy levels. Two primary construction modes are simulated and contrasted: the traditional direct government investment model, where the state fully funds and executes the project, and the innovative build-first-subsidize-later model, where eligible operators invest upfront and are reimbursed post-construction upon approval. Numerical simulations are conducted using Matlab to visualize the dynamic evolutionary paths of the three parties' strategy choices over time. The simulation results yield several critical insights: 1) Both policy models can steer the system toward an ideal equilibrium (1,1,1), where the government promotes construction, smallholders transfer land, and transferees accept it. However, the build-first-subsidize-later model induces a significantly faster co-evolutionary convergence rate compared to direct investment. Introducing reputation incentives further accelerates this process. A crucial caveat is that if the post-construction subsidy is set too low, it triggers a strategic shift among transferees toward non-acceptance, underscoring the sensitivity of this model to financial adequacy. 2) Key variables exert differentiated, non-linear influences on the evolutionary trajectory. Positive drivers—including longer land transfer lease terms, higher grain yields, and increased market prices—robustly accelerate convergence. Negative inhibitors—such as rising farmland maintenance costs, increased transfer transaction costs, and higher crop production inputs—slow down the system's evolution. Critical regulatory factors like per-mu construction investment, land transfer rent, and scale-operation subsidies exhibit an inverted U-shaped impact; they promote convergence up to an optimal threshold, beyond which marginal benefits decline and may even reverse the trend due to excessive fiscal burden or diminished returns. Furthermore, analysis incorporating a risk preference coefficient reveals that entities with higher risk tolerance and greater expected utility are more predisposed to engage in the build-first-subsidize-later scheme. 3) Significant divergence exists between paddy fields and drylands. In paddy field management, the build-first-subsidize-later model proves most efficient, achieving the fastest tripartite co-evolution, likely due to higher and more stable returns on irrigation infrastructure investment. For dryland systems, transferees face greater self-funding pressure; thus, enhanced subsidies or complementary support mechanisms are essential to sustain their participation incentives and achieve effective scaling. Derived from these findings, the study proposes a multifaceted policy framework. It advocates for the cautious promotion and institutional refinement of the build-first-subsidize-later model, particularly prioritizing its application in high-return paddy field zones. Policy design must involve scientifically calibrating the thresholds of critical variables to avoid diminishing returns. Regionally differentiated strategies are imperative: bolstering financial and technical support for dryland areas and economically lagging regions, while consolidating effective models in core grain-producing zones. Finally, strengthening legal safeguards, formalizing land transfer platforms, and fostering multi-stakeholder coordination are vital to reduce transaction costs, mitigate risks, and ensure the sustainable alignment of well-facilitated farmland construction with the overarching goals of orderly land transfer, agricultural modernization, and national food security.

     

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