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中国植被动态格局对水热因子的响应及时滞效应

Response and time-lag effects of vegetation dynamics to hydrothermal factors in China

  • 摘要: 植被动态格局的变化影响全球碳平衡以及生态系统的稳定,其驱动机制的研究已成为生态保护领域的重要议题。水热条件是影响植被动态格局的关键因子,其对植被的长期影响及其时滞效应尚缺乏系统性研究。为明确全国不同植被类型对水热因子响应的滞后时间,以全中国为研究区,基于2001—2021年NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index)数据集、降水数据和气温数据,综合运用时滞偏相关分析、Mann-Kendall检验与Sen趋势分析等方法,系统研究了中国NDVI时空变化特征,揭示了植被动态格局与气温和降水之间的相关性及其滞后效应。结果表明:1)2001—2021中国植被分布存在明显的空间分异,NDVI值西部低于东部,北部低于南部,整体呈现出变绿的趋势。2)植被对气温变化的响应存在0.8个月的平均滞后时间,滞后时间在3个月以上的区域主要集中在秦巴山区等森林区域。对降水的平均滞后时间为0.5个月,只有西南地区等地的植被与降水的偏相关系数在0.3以下,其他都表现出与降水的显著相关关系,植被对气温反应速度慢于对降水的反应速度。3)不同地区由于植被类型的不同,对水热因子的响应也有所差异。除草原外,均表现为对降水的滞后时间小于对气温的滞后时间。有助于加强对植被动态格局变化的认识,为实现生态环境保护、应对未来一段时期环境变化提供帮助。

     

    Abstract: Vegetation dynamics play a critical role in regulating global carbon balance and maintaining ecosystem stability, rendering the elucidation of their driving mechanisms a central topic in ecological research. Hydrothermal conditions—principally temperature and precipitation—are widely recognized as primary factors governing vegetation growth and distribution; nevertheless, the long-term effects of these climatic factors on vegetation, particularly their time-lag characteristics, remain insufficiently understood at the national scale, and the differential response times of various vegetation types to temperature versus precipitation, as well as the spatial heterogeneity of these lag effects, have yet to be systematically quantified for China's diverse terrestrial ecosystems. To address these gaps, the present study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation across China and quantified the time-lag effects of vegetation response to hydrothermal factors, utilizing the NDVI dataset in conjunction with monthly precipitation and temperature data from 2001 to 2021. The analytical framework integrated three complementary methods, namely time-lagged partial correlation analysis, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and Sen's slope estimation, with the maximum lag time set to 3 months based on data-driven sensitivity analysis and physiological considerations—specifically, that a quarterly lag corresponds to the typical duration from water input through soil infiltration and root uptake to measurable canopy biomass accumulation in temperate monsoon climates. The results revealed three major findings. First, the spatial distribution of NDVI in China exhibited pronounced heterogeneity, with values lower in western than in eastern China and lower in northern than in southern regions; despite this spatial disparity, the overall trend was significantly positive, indicating widespread greening over the past two decades. Second, the time-lag effects differed substantially between temperature and precipitation: for temperature, the mean lag time across all vegetation types was approximately 0.8 months, with regions exceeding 3 months concentrated primarily in forested areas such as the Qinling-Daba Mountains, where dense forest cover and deep root systems allow vegetation to integrate thermal signals over extended phenological phases; for precipitation, the mean lag time was approximately 0.5 months, shorter than that for temperature, suggesting more rapid response to water availability, although partial correlation coefficients were relatively weak (below 0.3) in some areas of Southwest China, implying that water availability is not the primary limiting factor in these regions, possibly due to high background humidity and frequent cloud cover. Third, the response patterns varied significantly among vegetation types: for most categories—including forests, shrublands, and croplands—the lag time for precipitation was shorter than that for temperature; notably, however, grasslands presented an exception, where the relative magnitudes of temperature and precipitation lag times deviated from the general rule, likely attributable to shallower root systems and more direct dependence of herbaceous plants on immediate surface soil moisture, which may alter the timing balance between thermal and water constraints. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that the time-lag effects of vegetation to hydrothermal factors in China are shaped by the interplay of climatic background, vegetation functional type, and local environmental conditions, with the shorter lag for precipitation suggesting that water availability exerts more immediate control over vegetation greenness, whereas the longer lag for temperature reflects the cumulative nature of thermal effects on plant phenology and biomass accrual. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of vegetation–climate interactions in China's diverse ecosystems and provides empirical evidence for improving the prediction of vegetation responses under future climate change scenarios, with insights that may also inform adaptive ecosystem management and the formulation of regional strategies for ecological conservation.

     

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