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秦巴山区山坡地表产流阈值多因子协同机理

Multi-factor synergistic mechanism of surface runoff thresholds on hillslopes in the Qinba Mountains

  • 摘要: 山坡坡面是山区小流域水文响应的基本单元,揭示其产流过程的非线性阈值特征,对理解流域暴雨洪水形成机理及提升山洪预警能力具有重要意义。本研究以秦巴山区典型山洪易发小流域为对象,采用室内外人工模拟降雨试验,系统研究了雨强、坡度、土层厚度及其分布形式、土壤初始含水率等多因子对地表产流时间的协同控制机理,构建了地表产流时间理论模型,并从水量平衡角度提出综合阈值指标。结果表明:1)雨强、坡度、土层厚度及其分布形式对地表产流时间具有非线性协同作用。雨强是主导驱动因子,产流时间随其增大呈幂函数急剧缩短;坡度效应具有强雨强依赖性,低雨强时坡度加速效应显著,高雨强时效应减弱;土层厚度通过控制蓄水库容决定产流基准水平,厚土层产流时间较薄土层延长35%~50%;土层厚度分布形式主要通过改变水分运移路径调控雨强和坡度的作用方式;土壤初始含水率与产流时间呈显著负相关。方差分析表明,雨强与坡度的交互效应贡献率达19%~20%,土层厚度分布形式与雨强、坡度的交互作用合计贡献30%~35%。2)根据多因子协同控制机理构建的地表产流时间理论模型模拟效果良好,室内验证R2达0.91~0.92,NSE达0.89~0.92,在官山河流域野外径流小区验证中整体表现可靠。3)根据经典的三阶段产流理论,采用“累计降雨量+土壤初始含水量”(CR+ASM)作为综合阈值指标,可清晰地表征产流过程的蓄水、慢速产流和快速产流三阶段临界特征,有效消除了土层厚度差异,厚薄土层间各阶段阈值差异缩小至2.32 mm以内。基于该综合指标的理论模型模拟精度达R2=0.99,NSE=0.99,并能有效抑制极端干燥条件下的模拟偏差,将相对误差从-20.0%~-26.2%降至-6.39%~-9.13%。本研究揭示了山坡坡面地表产流的多因子协同非线性阈值机制,构建的产流时间理论模型及CR+ASM综合判别指标可为山区小流域暴雨洪水精准模拟与山洪灾害预警提供重要理论依据。

     

    Abstract: Hillslope is the fundamental unit of hydrological response in mountainous small watersheds, and elucidating the nonlinear threshold characteristics of its runoff generation process is essential for understanding storm flood formation mechanisms and improving flash flood early warning capabilities. This study took a typical flash flood-prone small watershed in the Qinba Mountains as the study area, and employed a combination of indoor simulated rainfall experiments and field runoff plot observations to systematically investigate the synergistic control mechanisms of multiple factors on surface runoff initiation time, including rainfall intensity (RI), slope gradient (S), soil thickness distribution pattern (STDP), and initial soil moisture content (θini). A theoretical model for predicting surface runoff initiation time was developed, and an integrated threshold index was proposed from the perspective of water balance.The results demonstrated that: (1) Rainfall intensity, slope gradient, soil thickness, and STDP exerted nonlinear synergistic effects on surface runoff initiation time. Rainfall intensity was the dominant controlling factor, with runoff initiation time decreasing sharply as a power function with increasing intensity. The slope effect exhibited strong rainfall intensity dependence, being pronounced under low-intensity conditions but diminishing under high-intensity conditions. Soil thickness determined the baseline response level by regulating water storage capacity; runoff initiation time in thick soil layers was 35%~50% longer than in thin layers. STDP primarily modulated the effects of rainfall intensity and slope by altering subsurface flow pathways. Initial soil moisture content was significantly negatively correlated with runoff initiation time. Variance analysis revealed that the interaction between rainfall intensity and slope contributed 19%~20% of the total variance, while the interactions of STDP with rainfall intensity and slope jointly accounted for 30%~35%. (2) The theoretical model developed based on multi-factor synergistic mechanisms performed well, achieving R2 values of 0.91~0.92 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.89~0.92 in laboratory validation, and demonstrated reliable performance in field runoff plot validation within the Guanshan River Basin. (3) Based on the classical three-stage runoff generation theory, the integrated index “cumulative rainfall + initial soil moisture content” (CR+ASM) clearly characterized the critical thresholds of the three stages, water storage, slow runoff, and fast runoff, and effectively eliminated the influence of soil thickness differences, reducing threshold disparities between thick and thin soil layers to within 2.32 mm. The theoretical model based on this integrated index achieved excellent simulation accuracy (R2=0.99, NSE=0.99) and effectively suppressed simulation biases under extremely dry antecedent conditions, reducing relative errors from −20.0% to −26.2% down to −6.39% to −9.13%. This study revealed the multi-factor synergistic nonlinear threshold mechanisms of hillslope surface runoff generation. The developed theoretical model for runoff initiation time and the CR+ASM integrated discriminant index provided important theoretical foundations for accurate storm flood simulation and flash flood disaster early warning in mountainous small watersheds.

     

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