Abstract: Against the profound backdrop of dual constraints imposed by imperative national food security requirements and increasingly severe resource and environmental limitations, the scientific identification of regional maize yield increase potential and the formulation of strategic spatial regulation directions are of paramount importance. These scientific endeavors are absolutely critical for guaranteeing the stable production and a continuous, sustainable supply of staple grains. To address these critical issues, this comprehensive study focuses on Northeast China, a vital agricultural hub. By meticulously utilizing long-term time-series remote sensing Net Primary Productivity data spanning from 2001 to 2023, we successfully inverted and estimated the actual maize yield across the study area. Furthermore, the globally recognized Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was applied to simulate the maximum potential production capacity of maize, thereby revealing the complex spatio-temporal heterogeneous patterns of its potential yield. Building upon a robust constraint framework that bridges actual yield and theoretical production potential, we comprehensively integrated Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models with advanced scenario analysis methodologies. This integrated approach allowed us to systematically identify the intricate patterns of maize yield enhancement and pinpoint the critical limiting factors constraining production. Consequently, a detailed investigation into differentiated spatial regulation zoning was conducted based on these comprehensive analytical outcomes. The empirical results robustly indicate several key findings: (1) Throughout the research period, both the actual yield and the production potential of maize in Northeast China exhibited highly significant spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics. The high-growth hotspots of actual maize yield were densely agglomerated within the fertile hinterlands of the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain. Conversely, the spatial configuration of maize production potential demonstrated a distinct "high in the central regions and low in the peripheral areas" pattern. Temporally, this potential also exhibited pronounced zonal disparities, characterized by a strengthening trend in the western regions, contrasted with a weakening trajectory in the eastern and northern sectors. (2) The strategic exploitation of existing agricultural potential (stock tapping) and the ecologically sustainable expansion of arable land (ecological expansion) emerge as the two critical pathways for achieving substantial maize yield increases. The stock tapping scenario can theoretically realize a remarkable maize yield augmentation of 45.2485 million tons, though it is inherently constrained by potential plateau effects (yield ceilings). Concurrently, the ecological expansion scenario is capable of achieving a yield increase of 30.03 million tons, while simultaneously and significantly mitigating the severe risks of carbon storage loss typically associated with unregulated agricultural land expansion. (3) Climatic variables and topographical factors predominantly dictate the overall pattern of maize yield increase potential across Northeast China, whereas the influence intensity and the directional impact of soil factors exhibit a remarkably high degree of spatial heterogeneity. (4) Geographically, Northeast China forms a highly structured, concentric spatial regulation pattern characterized fundamentally as "focusing on existing stock in the central region and pursuing incremental expansion in the western region." Consequently, the central core agricultural areas should pivot primarily toward maximizing the utilization efficiency of available light and temperature resources. Meanwhile, the peripheral western marginal zones must imperatively prioritize comprehensive soil salinization management and extensive ecological restoration initiatives. In conclusion, the findings derived from this study offer a rigorous, scientifically validated theoretical basis for the accurate identification of maize yield increase potential and the implementation of differentiated spatial regulation strategies in Northeast China. Ultimately, this research provides indispensable strategic decision-making support for successfully harmonizing the overarching goals of ensuring food security while simultaneously safeguarding regional ecological security.