Abstract: Regional maize yield increase potential can be identified for decision-making on spatial regulation. Sustainable supply of staple grains is often required to balance national food security and increasingly severe resource constraints. This study focused on the spatial pattern of maize yield and regulation zoning in Northeast China using productive potential constraints. According to long-term time-series remote sensing, Net Primary Productivity data were collected from 2001 to 2023. The actual maize yield was then estimated in the study area. Furthermore, the globally recognized Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was also applied to simulate the maximum potential production of maize, indicating the complex spatiotemporal heterogeneous patterns of its potential yield. A robust constraint framework was utilized to bridge actual yield and theoretical production potential using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models with advanced scenario analysis. The patterns of maize yield were systematically identified to determine the limiting factors on grain production. Consequently, differentiated spatial zoning was conducted after identification. The results indicated: (1) Both the actual yield and production potential of maize exhibited highly significant spatiotemporal differentiation in the research period. The high-growth hotspots of actual maize yield were densely agglomerated in the fertile hinterlands of the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain. Conversely, the spatial configuration of maize production potential demonstrated the pattern of "the high in the central regions and the low in the peripheral areas". Temporally, a strengthening trend was observed in the western regions, whereas a weakening trajectory was observed in the eastern and northern regions, indicating zonal disparities. (2) Two pathways were proposed to increase maize yield: existing agricultural potential (stock tapping) and the ecologically sustainable expansion of arable land (ecological expansion). The stock tapping scenario was theoretically realized to achieve a remarkable maize yield augmentation of 45.2485 million tons, particularly with constraints from potential plateau effects (yield ceilings). Concurrently, the ecological expansion scenario achieved a yield increase of 30.03 million tons, while carbon storage loss was simultaneously and significantly mitigated under unregulated agricultural land expansion. (3) Climatic variables and topographical factors dominated the overall pattern of maize yield increase potential. Whereas the directional intensity of soil factors exhibited a remarkably high degree of spatial heterogeneity. (4) Geographically, a highly structured, concentric spatial regulation pattern was characterized fundamentally as "focusing on existing stock in the central region and pursuing incremental expansion in the western region." Consequently, the central agricultural areas should maximize the utilization efficiency of available light and temperature resources. Meanwhile, the peripheral western marginal zones prioritize soil salinization and ecological restoration initiatives. In conclusion, the findings offer a theoretical basis for the accurate identification of maize yield increase potential and differentiated spatial regulation in Northeast China.