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中国西南地区陡坡耕地时空演变及其影响因素

Spatiotemporal evolution and its influencing factors of steep-slope croplands in Southwest China

  • 摘要: 中国半数以上>25°陡坡耕地分布在西南地区,其时空动态对全国粮食安全保障和生态环境建设的影响不容忽视。明确西南地区陡坡耕地时空演变特征及其影响因素,可为完善陡坡耕地管理提供依据。该研究结合30 m数字高程模型和2000—2025年土地覆盖数据构建陡坡耕地密度指标,借助空间自相关、冷热点、土地利用转移矩阵等分析手段,以标准网格单元刻画西南地区陡坡耕地的时空格局与转入转出特征;进而运用随机森林模型,在县域尺度识别控制陡坡耕地分布以及驱动陡坡耕地变化的主要影响因素。研究发现:1)西南地区陡坡耕地广布于海拔3000 m以下的山地丘陵区域,其平均密度为2.71%,具有显著空间集聚性。2000—2025年,全区陡坡耕地密度从2.84%下降至2.52%,呈现“北部显著下降、中部南部升降错落”的空间特征。2)2000—2025年,西南地区陡坡耕地转出为森林、灌木和草地的比例分别为53.84%、42.42%和3.56%,而反向转入为陡坡耕地的对应比例分别为69.94%、15.46%和14.4%,表明该时期的陡坡耕地转换对提升该区域生境质量有益。3)对陡坡耕地密度的影响始终排在前列且基本稳定的是地形因子和土地利用因子,影响力偏弱且变动频繁的是社会经济因子和生态质量因子,政策是陡坡耕地时空变化的重要驱动力。研究结果进一步丰富了有关中国西南地区陡坡耕地时空格局的认知,可为优化国土空间开发保护格局和完善陡坡耕地管控策略提供基础参考。

     

    Abstract: Over half of China’s steep-slope croplands, strictly defined as agricultural lands situated on topographic gradients steeper than 25 degrees, are densely concentrated within the complex mountainous and hilly terrains of Southwest China. The spatiotemporal dynamics and developmental trajectories of these highly vulnerable marginal lands exert a profound, unignorable influence on the dual national strategic imperatives of safeguarding food security and advancing ecological environmental construction. Clarifying the precise spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of these steep-slope croplands, alongside a rigorous identification of their underlying influencing factors, is critically essential for establishing a robust scientific basis to refine regional land management policies. To address this necessity, this study constructed a specialized steep-slope cropland density indicator by integrating high-resolution 30-meter digital elevation models with comprehensive annual land cover datasets spanning a twenty-five-year period from 2000 to 2025. Utilizing a meticulously selected standard grid unit to balance macroscopic regional trends with micro-level spatial heterogeneity, the research employed an array of advanced spatial analysis techniques—including global spatial autocorrelation, cold and hot spot analysis, and detailed land-use transition matrices—to systematically depict the overarching spatiotemporal patterns and the complex, bidirectional inward and outward conversion characteristics of steep-slope croplands across the southwestern region. Furthermore, a Random Forest machine learning algorithm was innovatively applied at the county administrative scale to quantitatively parse out the primary driving factors controlling the static spatial distribution and the dynamic temporal shifts of these croplands among a multitude of natural and anthropogenic variables. The empirical findings reveal several critical insights. First, steep-slope croplands in Southwest China are widely and prominently distributed across diverse geomorphological landscapes at elevations predominantly below 3000 meters. The region maintains an average steep-slope cropland density of 2.71%, which exhibits a highly significant degree of spatial agglomeration, with distinct hotspots concentrated along major mountain ranges. Throughout the 2000–2025 observational period, the overarching density of steep-slope cropland across the entire study area experienced a gradual but definitive net decline from 2.84% down to 2.52%. However, this macroscopic reduction was characterized by intense spatial heterogeneity, presenting a distinct geographical pattern defined by a pronounced, continuous decline in the northern territories, starkly contrasted by a highly fragmented, staggered, and interwoven pattern of simultaneous localized expansion and contraction throughout the central and southern zones. Second, an in-depth analysis of the land-use transition matrices from 2000 to 2025 indicates that the outward conversion of steep-slope croplands was directed primarily toward ecological restoration, with the proportions transferred into forests, shrublands, and grasslands accounting for 53.84%, 42.42%, and 3.56%, respectively. In contrast, the reverse inward conversions from these ecological lands into steep-slope agricultural use were predominantly sourced from forests (69.94%), followed by shrublands (15.46%) and grasslands (14.40%). This net directional shift conclusively demonstrates that the overarching land-use conversions involving steep-slope croplands during this quarter-century period have been highly beneficial for mitigating ecological degradation and enhancing the overall habitat quality of the region. Third, the Random Forest predictive modeling demonstrated that topographic constraints and foundational land-use factors consistently ranked at the forefront of variable importance, maintaining a stable and dominant influence on steep-slope cropland density over time. Conversely, the explanatory power exerted by standard socio-economic variables and ecological quality indicators was relatively weak and exhibited frequent temporal volatility. Ultimately, qualitative assessments confirm that overarching macro-policies function as the most crucial underlying driving forces dictating these spatiotemporal transformations. These comprehensive research results significantly enrich the theoretical and empirical understanding of the spatiotemporal configuration of steep-slope croplands in Southwest China, thereby providing a fundamental, data-driven reference for optimizing territorial spatial development and protection patterns, and for tailoring more precise, differentiated steep-slope cropland governance strategies in the future.

     

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