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三维视角下黄淮海平原干旱时空演变特征分析

Spatiotemporal evolution of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from a three-dimensional perspective

  • 摘要: 为从三维视角揭示黄淮海平原地区干旱时空演变特征,该研究基于黄淮海平原地区1960—2020年102个站的日气象数据和土壤特性数据,计算了月尺度帕默尔干旱指数、自校准帕默尔干旱指数、标准化降水指数和标准化降水蒸散指数,采用干旱过程三维动态分析法识别了4种干旱指数下的干旱事件,并以干旱历时、烈度、强度、最大干旱面积等特征变量表征。通过比较4种干旱指数识别的干旱事件与实际旱情的吻合程度,筛选最适宜该地区的干旱指数。采用最适宜干旱指数识别的干旱事件特征值揭示该地区干旱的时空演变规律。结果表明:1)自校准帕默尔干旱指数在黄淮海平原地区的适用性最高,61a间共识别干旱事件89场,最长历时达13个月,峰值烈度达6.3×104。2)时间尺度上,1960—2002年干旱事件发生较为集中,最大干旱面积与峰值强度整体较高,严重干旱主要出现在1964—1968年、1977—1983年和1993—2002年,其中最大干旱面积达到6.9×105 km2,占研究区面积的88.4%;2003年后干旱事件峰值强度呈下降趋势。空间尺度上,干旱事件重心主要分布于研究区中北部,长历时、高烈度事件占比较高,其他地区以短历时、低烈度事件为主。干旱事件重心整体以向北和西南方向迁移为主,其中正北方向存在迁移距离超过1200 km的长距离干旱事件。3)重度干旱事件具有空间聚集特征,其干旱事件的重心呈现由北向中部迁移的特点,而一般干旱事件呈多源分散特性,表现为由西南向东北的扇形扩散特点。该研究可为黄淮海平原地区的灾害预警和风险管理提供理论依据和技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To clarify the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China, this study investigated long-term drought dynamics using multi-index comparison and three-dimensional event identification techniques. The research aimed to explore regional drought characteristics and to determine the most suitable drought indicator for this specific plain from 1960 to 2020. Daily meteorological observations from 102 stations and regional soil property data were used to calculate four monthly drought indices: the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). A three-dimensional dynamic drought identification framework was employed to merge spatially contiguous drought grids across successive months, thereby constructing continuous spatiotemporal drought volumes. For each identified event, duration, cumulative severity, mean intensity, maximum affected area, and centroid migration distance were extracted. The performance of the four indices was evaluated by comparing identified events with documented historical drought records and disaster statistics, and the most suitable index was selected for further spatiotemporal analysis. Among the four indices, scPDSI demonstrated the highest applicability for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, as it most consistently matched historical drought occurrences and regional hydroclimatic conditions. Over the 61-year period, 89 independent drought events were identified using scPDSI. The longest event persisted for 13 months, and the maximum cumulative severity reached 6.3×104. Temporally, both maximum drought area and peak intensity fluctuated but exhibited an overall declining trend from 1960 to 2002. After 2003, these indicators weakened markedly, suggesting a regional wetting tendency. Severe drought episodes were concentrated during three major periods: 1964-1968, 1977-1983, and 1993-2002. During extreme cases, the maximum affected area reached 6.9×105 km2, accounting for 88.4% of the total study area. Spatially, the analysis revealed pronounced heterogeneity. The north-central regions, particularly the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, were identified as the epicenters of long-duration and high-severity drought events. In contrast, the southern portion of the plain was characterized by shorter and lower-intensity incidents. Centroid migration analysis identified two dominant pathways: due north and southwest, each accounting for nearly eighteen percent of the total events. Northward-moving droughts were typically large-scale events with migration distances exceeding nine hundred and sixty kilometers. Conversely, southwestward migration was dominated by localized droughts with displacement distances ranging from zero to seven hundred and twenty kilometers. Furthermore, heavy drought events exhibited clear spatial clustering, with their centroids gradually shifting from the northern reaches toward the central plain over time. In contrast, general drought events displayed multi-source dispersion characterized by a fan-shaped expansion from the southwest to the northeast. Overall, these results reveal distinct temporal trends and pronounced spatial heterogeneity in drought evolution across the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The three-dimensional dynamic identification framework effectively captured the continuity and migration of drought events and provided a more integrated representation than traditional static approaches. The identified post-2003 wetting tendency and directional migration characteristics reflected a significant shift in regional drought behavior. These findings supported the adoption of scPDSI for long-term monitoring in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and provided technical support for regional drought early warning and risk management.

     

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