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基于GPP与三维地理加权的跨作物估产迁移学习方法

Transfer learning method for cross-crop yield estimation based on GPP and three-dimensional geographical weighting

  • 摘要: 针对作物估产解释性不足与跨作物泛化受限问题,该研究提出融合总初级生产力(gross primary productivity,GPP)和三维地理加权的跨作物迁移学习估产框架GeoCropNet。该方法以时序GPP为核心输入,融合时空双流编码与三维地理加权,刻画时空非平稳性,并以元知识蒸馏实现跨作物知识对齐。在美国玉米带和中国东北产区,GeoCropNet跨作物估产决定系数最高为0.81,均方根误差最低为359.86 kg/hm2,优于传统迁移方法。消融结果表明,相较于近红外植被反射率(near-infrared reflectance of vegetation, NIRv),GPP表征能力更强。生殖生长初期为关键估产窗口,可分别提前24 和40 d捕捉玉米、大豆稳定产量信号;迁移后两种作物在县域与像素尺度的隐空间分布趋于一致,有效缓解跨域特征偏差。研究表明,将具物理意义的生理指标与三维地理空间信息深度融合,可显著提升模型在复杂农业场景下的解释性与跨作物泛化性能,为大尺度、多作物协同的精准产量监测提供了技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Accurate and large-scale crop yield estimation is critical for global food security and agricultural macro-control. This study aimed to address two key limitations in existing crop yield estimation models: the lack of interpretability caused by blind stacking of multi-source variables, and the insufficient generalization ability of single-crop models due to feature differences among crop species, along with the failure of traditional two-dimensional spatial modeling to capture the structural constraints of three-dimensional terrain on yield formation. This study constructed a yield estimation framework with both physiological mechanism interpretability and cross-crop transfer capability for maize and soybean, the major staple crops worldwide.This study proposed the GeoCropNet model for cross-crop yield estimation. The model took time-series Gross Primary Production (GPP) data with clear photosynthetic physiological significance as the core input, and built a dual-stream spatiotemporal feature extraction architecture. A three-dimensional Geographically Weighted Regression (3D-GWR) module was introduced in the spatial stream to characterize the spatial non-stationarity of yield by integrating geographic location and elevation information. Meanwhile, a Meta-Knowledge Distillation Transfer Network (MKDTN) was designed to achieve bidirectional knowledge alignment between maize and soybean. Validations were conducted in the U.S. Corn Belt and the black soil region of Northeast China, with performance compared against mainstream machine learning and deep transfer learning models.First, the analysis of physiological characteristics revealed that maize and soybean presented highly consistent unimodal GPP accumulation curves during the whole growth period, and their yield-sensitive windows were extremely overlapped, which provided a solid theoretical basis for cross-crop knowledge transfer. In in-domain yield estimation tasks, the GeoCropNet achieved competitive performance with state-of-the-art deep learning models at both county and field scales, and showed stronger robustness in field-scale tasks with high spatial heterogeneity. In bidirectional cross-crop transfer tasks, the proposed model outperformed mainstream transfer learning models including Partial Domain Adaptation Neural Network (PDANN), YieldNet and Adaptive Adversarial Domain Adaptation Neural Network (ADANN) in all test scenarios. The maximum coefficient of determination (R2) of cross-crop yield estimation reached 0.81, and the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) was as low as 359.86 kg/hm2. Meanwhile, the model achieved consistent accuracy improvement in all 16 independent test sets compared with its in-domain baseline. Phenological sensitivity analysis identified that the early reproductive growth stage (silking to milk stage for maize, flowering to podding stage for soybean) was the core information increment window for yield estimation, and the model could capture stable yield signals 24 days and 40 days before harvest for maize and soybean, respectively. Ablation experiments confirmed that GPP had stronger characterization ability than vegetation near-infrared reflectance (NIRv) in cross-crop transfer scenarios, and the introduction of 3D-GWR module effectively improved the model’s spatial characterization performance. The t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) visualization verified that the framework could map features of different crops into a unified latent space, thus alleviating the feature deviation problem in cross-domain estimation. In addition, the model achieved positive transfer in all test years in the black soil region of Northeast China, with significantly better performance than the benchmark model, which confirmed its applicability in fragmented planting scenarios.This study demonstrated that the integration of physiological indicators with clear physical meaning and three-dimensional geospatial information could significantly improve the interpretability and cross-species generalization performance of deep learning-based yield estimation models. The proposed GeoCropNet framework effectively broke the species barrier of single-crop customized models, and provided technical support for large-scale multi-crop collaborative precise yield monitoring. Future research will focus on the spatiotemporal downscaling fusion of multi-source remote sensing data and the coupling of higher-resolution GPP products to achieve more refined field-scale yield estimation.

     

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