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基于GPP与三维地理加权的跨作物估产迁移学习方法

Transfer learning method for cross-crop yield estimation based on GPP and three-dimensional geographical weighting

  • 摘要: 针对作物估产解释性不足与跨作物泛化受限问题,该研究提出融合总初级生产力(gross primary productivity, GPP)和三维地理加权的跨作物迁移学习估产框架GeoCropNet。该方法以时序GPP为核心输入,融合时空双流编码与三维地理加权,刻画时空非平稳性,并以元知识蒸馏实现跨作物知识对齐。在美国玉米带和中国东北产区,GeoCropNet跨作物估产决定系数最高为0.81,均方根误差最低为359.86 kg/hm2,优于传统迁移方法。消融结果表明,相较于近红外植被反射率(near-infrared reflectance of vegetation, NIRv),GPP表征能力更强。生殖发育阶段为关键估产窗口,可分别提前24 和40 d捕捉玉米、大豆稳定产量信号;迁移后两种作物在县域与像素尺度的隐空间分布趋于一致,有效缓解跨域特征偏差。研究表明,将具物理意义的生理指标与三维地理空间信息深度融合,可显著提升模型在复杂农业场景下的解释性与跨作物泛化性能,为大尺度、多作物协同的精准产量监测提供了技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Accurate and large-scale crop yield estimation is often required for global food security in modern agriculture. However, existing models of crop yield estimation are confined by the low interpretability from the blind stacking of multi-source variables. Furthermore, there is insufficient generalization of single-crop models due to feature differences among crop species. Conventional two-dimensional spatial modeling cannot fully capture the structural constraints of three-dimensional terrain on yield formation. In this study, a yield estimation framework was constructed with both physiological mechanism interpretability and cross-crop transfer for maize and soybean, the major staple crops worldwide. A GeoCropNet model was proposed for cross-crop yield estimation. Time-series gross primary production (GPP) data were collected with photosynthetic physiological significance as the inputs. A dual-stream architecture was constructed to extract spatiotemporal features. A three-dimensional geographically weighted regression (3D-GWR) module was introduced in the spatial stream to characterize the spatial non-stationarity of yield using geographic location and elevation information. Meanwhile, a meta-knowledge distillation transfer network (MKDTN) was designed to align bidirectional knowledge between maize and soybean. Validation tests were conducted in the U.S. Corn Belt and the black soil region of Northeast China. The performance was compared with mainstream machine learning and deep transfer learning. The physiological traits revealed that maize and soybean presented highly consistent unimodal GPP accumulation curves during the whole growth period. Their yield-sensitive windows overlapped extremely, providing a solid theoretical basis for cross-crop knowledge transfer. In in-domain yield estimation tasks, the GeoCropNet achieved competitive performance with state-of-the-art deep learning models at both county and field scales. The results showed that there was stronger robustness with high spatial heterogeneity in field-scale tasks. In bidirectional cross-crop transfer tasks, the model outperformed mainstream transfer learning models, including partial domain adaptation neural network (PDANN), YieldNet, and adaptive adversarial domain adaptation neural network (ADANN), in all test scenarios. The maximum coefficient of determination (R2) of cross-crop yield estimation reached 0.81, and the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) was as low as 359.86 kg/hm2. Meanwhile, the model achieved consistent accuracy improvement in all 16 independent test sets, compared with its in-domain baseline. Phenological sensitivity analysis identified that the early reproductive growth stage (silking to milk stage for maize, flowering to podding stage for soybean) was the information increment window for yield estimation. Stable yield signals of maize and soybean were captured for 24 and 40 days before harvest, respectively. Ablation experiments confirmed that GPP shared a stronger characterization than vegetation near-infrared reflectance (NIRv) in cross-crop transfer scenarios. The 3D-GWR module effectively improved the spatial performance. The t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) visualization verified that the framework mapped features of different crops into a unified latent space, thus alleviating the feature deviation in cross-domain estimation. In addition, positive transfer was achieved in all test years in the black soil region of Northeast China, with significantly better performance than the benchmark model, indicating its applicability in fragmented planting scenarios. Physiological indicators were integrated with physical meaning. Three-dimensional geospatial information significantly improved the interpretability and cross-species generalization of yield estimation models. The GeoCropNet framework effectively broke the species barrier of single-crop customized models. The findings can provide technical support for precise yield monitoring at large scale using multi-crop collaboration. Future research can focus on the spatiotemporal downscaling fusion of multi-source remote sensing data using higher-resolution GPP products, particularly for more refined yield estimation at field scale

     

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