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基于物候与样本增强的山西典型区弃耕识别与演变分析

Identification and evolution analysis of cropland abandonment in typical regions of Shanxi based on phenological signatures and sample augmentation

  • 摘要: 弃耕是威胁粮食安全的重要土地覆被变化类型,高效、准确识别弃耕具有重要意义。针对弃耕识别精度不高与样本不足等问题,本研究构建适用于不同熟制区的时序遥感弃耕识别方法,为粮食安全评估提供支撑。以山西省晋南一年两熟区和晋北一年一熟区为研究区,基于2019—2024年Sentinel-2长时间序列影像,开展物候敏感特征分析,构建物候敏感特征集;基于弃耕变化特征,提出强时空泛化弃耕样本生成方法,结合随机森林模型开展弃耕识别与时空格局分析。结果表明:该方法通过物候敏感特征选择和构建具有时空泛化能力高质量样本,两个熟制区2019—2023年弃耕识别的平均总体精度(Overall Accuracy,OA)分别达到93.45%和94.69%,有效的提升了弃耕识别精度;2019—2024年间,两个研究区的弃耕面积与弃耕率整体呈阶段性波动,均于2020—2022年达到峰值,弃耕面积分别达到15375.46公顷和27550.22公顷,此后呈现差异化回落趋势;弃耕在一年一熟区表现为高值区阶段性波动与局部再集聚,在一年两熟区则沿“东-西南”方向迁移并形成新的高值集聚带,揭示了不同种植制度区弃耕空间演化路径的差异。研究结果可为山西省制定差异化农业政策、保障国家粮食安全提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Cropland abandonment is an important type of agricultural land-use change that reduces the effective area of cultivated land and may affect regional food security. Accurate large-scale monitoring remains challenging because abandoned cropland can exhibit spectral and phenological characteristics similar to grassland, woodland, and temporarily uncultivated fields, while reliable training samples for abandonment mapping are often limited. This study developed a time-series remote sensing framework for cropland abandonment mapping across different cropping systems by integrating phenology-sensitive features (PSFs), land-cover sample augmentation, rule-based pseudo-sample generation, and random forest classification. Two typical agricultural regions in Shanxi Province, China, were selected: the single-cropping region in northern Shanxi and the double-cropping region in southern Shanxi. Sentinel-2 imagery from 2019 to 2024 was processed through cloud masking using Cloud Score+, monthly median compositing, temporal gap filling, and spectral-index calculation to construct standardized annual time-series datasets. Based on intra-annual NDVI trajectories of cropland, woodland, and grassland, PSFs were derived from NDVI changes between key phenological months to enhance differences in seasonal vegetation dynamics. A three-year sliding-window criterion was adopted to identify abandonment: pixels classified as cropland in the first year that subsequently remained in non-cropping states, mainly woodland, grassland, or low-cover vegetation, for two consecutive years were considered abandoned, while policy-driven rotational fallow, ecological conversion, temporary idling, and short-term recultivation were excluded. To alleviate the scarcity of annotated abandonment samples, multi-year land-cover samples were interpreted using the CLCD and ESRI land-cover products, NDVI time series, and high-resolution imagery. A weighted feature-vector method was first applied to augment major land-cover categories. Subsequently, pseudo-samples of abandoned cropland, stable cropland, and other land-cover trajectories were generated by temporally combining land-cover samples according to predefined transition rules. The resulting pseudo-samples were used to train random forest models, whereas independently interpreted real abandonment samples were reserved for final mapping validation. Cross-temporal experiments were further conducted by generating pseudo-samples from land-cover data in years that did not fully overlap the target identification windows, thereby evaluating the temporal transferability of the proposed approach. The proposed framework achieved high and stable mapping accuracy in both cropping regions. For the three identification windows of 2019–2021, 2020–2022, and 2021–2023, the mean overall accuracy reached 93.45% in the single-cropping region and 94.69% in the double-cropping region, with Kappa coefficients ranging from 0.885 to 0.963. F1 scores for abandoned cropland ranged from 0.878 to 0.917, indicating generally balanced omission and commission errors. PSF comparison experiments further showed that several key feature combinations improved the F1 score for abandoned cropland identification. These results demonstrate the value of capturing crop growth, harvest-related decline, and short-term phenological fluctuations rather than relying solely on NDVI magnitude. Spatiotemporal mapping from 2019 to 2024 revealed pronounced stage-specific fluctuations in both study regions. Abandoned cropland area peaked during the 2020–2022 window, reaching 15,375.46 ha in the single-cropping region and 27,550.22 ha in the double-cropping region, followed by differentiated declining trends. At the county scale, high-abandonment areas in the single-cropping region exhibited alternating expansion, contraction, and local re-aggregation. In contrast, abandonment in the double-cropping region showed a clearer east-to-southwest shift and formed new high-value aggregation zones. These contrasting patterns reveal distinct spatial evolution pathways of cropland abandonment under different cropping systems. Overall, integrating phenological feature characterization with sample augmentation and rule-based pseudo-sample generation provides a robust approach for long-term cropland abandonment monitoring under limited-sample conditions. The resulting spatial information can support differentiated cropland management and food-security assessment in Shanxi Province.

     

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