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东部发达地区撂荒耕地复耕潜力与整治优先性评估

Assessment for recultivation potential and consolidation priority of abandoned farmland in the eastern developed regions

  • 摘要: 撂荒是当前制约耕地高效利用、威胁粮食安全的突出问题,如何提升撂荒耕地整治效率,是农业可持续发展进程中面临的重要难题。已有研究多基于耕地的生产或生态潜力,采用“一刀切”式的工程整治模式,容易造成“垦而不种、种而不久”的低效后果。据此,本研究以浙江省为案例区,基于多源异构数据,构建“粮食供需—复耕效益—利用稳定”的撂荒耕地整治潜力评估框架,采用三维魔方分级方法确定撂荒耕地整治优先性,并提出针对性治理策略。结果表明:浙江省2023年撂荒耕地总面积达753.75 km2,主要分布在海拔和坡度更高的山地丘陵区。撂荒耕地复耕潜力呈现显著空间异质性。浙中和浙东地区粮食自给缺口较大,浙北平原和浙中盆地复耕效益较高,稳定性较强,整体复耕潜力相对更高。在各整治区域中,优先实施区面积最大,为550.72 km2,占比达73.06%,主要分布在浙北平原和浙中盆地。效益低下区面积占比仅为0.15%,主要分布于丽水市和衢州市。本研究可为浙江省优化耕地整治布局、落实耕地保护战略提供决策支撑,对中国其他类似地区的撂荒耕地治理具有重要理论借鉴与实践参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Farmland abandonment has become a major obstacle to the efficient use of farmland and a significant threat to food security. Improving the efficiency of abandoned farmland consolidation is therefore a critical challenge in the process of sustainable agricultural development. In response to the challenges posed by farmland abandonment, governments at various levels have successively introduced a series of policies and regulations, forming a comprehensive policy guidance system. Meanwhile, farmland abandonment has attracted extensive scholarly attention, generating a rich body of research that provides theoretical support for the recultivation of abandoned farmland. However, existing policy practices and theoretical studies have largely focused on the productive or ecological potential of farmland and tended to adopt a “one-size-fits-all” engineering approach, which can easily result in inefficient outcomes such as “reclaimed but not cultivated” or “cultivated but not sustained”. It is therefore necessary to scientifically assess the priority of abandoned farmland consolidation under the strategic goal of food security by comprehensively considering the costs and benefits of recultivation, thereby improving recultivation efficiency and promoting the efficient utilization of farmland resources. Accordingly, this study took Zhejiang Province, an economically developed province in eastern China, as the case study area. Considering the socioeconomic characteristics of Zhejiang and the spatial distribution of abandoned farmland, this study constructed an assessment framework for the consolidation potential of abandoned farmland based on multi-source heterogeneous datasets, integrating “food supply and demand, recultivation benefits, and utilization stability”. Based on the assessment of food supply and demand, recultivation benefits, and utilization stability, a spatial overlay classification method was employed to comprehensively determine the consolidation priorities of abandoned farmland in Zhejiang and propose targeted governance strategies. The results show that the total area of abandoned farmland in Zhejiang reached 753.75 km2 in 2023, mainly distributed in mountainous and hilly areas with higher elevations and steeper slopes. The recultivation potential of abandoned farmland exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. In terms of food supply and demand, central and eastern Zhejiang faced relatively large food self-sufficiency gaps, and the spatial distribution of food supply-demand gaps across cities in Zhejiang largely overlapped with areas where abandoned farmland was concentrated. In terms of recultivation benefits, the northern plains and central basins of Zhejiang showed relatively high recultivation benefits, with an overall gradient of declining benefits from northern to southern Zhejiang and from western to eastern Zhejiang. The spatial pattern of utilization stability was highly consistent with that of recultivation benefits, with recultivated plots in the northern plains and central basins showing relatively strong utilization stability and consequently higher overall recultivation potential. Among the identified consolidation zones, priority implementation areas accounted for the largest share, covering 550.72 km2, or 73.06% of the total abandoned farmland, and were primarily distributed in the northern plains and central basins. Low-benefit areas accounted for only 0.15% of the total area and were mainly located in Lishui and Quzhou. The findings provide decision-making support for optimizing the spatial allocation of farmland consolidation and implementing farmland protection strategies in Zhejiang, while offering valuable theoretical insights and practical guidance for the management of abandoned farmland in other similar regions of China.

     

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