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基于多源时序双注意力网络的甘肃县域苹果产量预测

A Multi-Source Time-Series Dual-Attention Network for County-Level Apple Yield Prediction in Gansu

  • 摘要: 针对不同苹果主产区县域产量预测中区域异质性影响模型预测性能的问题,该研究构建面向县域苹果单位面积产量预测的分区自适应残差网络-视觉Transformer(Residual Network-Vision Transformer, ResNet-ViT)模型。以甘肃省天水、平凉和庆阳3个苹果主产市22个县域2018—2024年数据为基础,融合4—10月遥感指数、气象变量及地形和苹果园面积等辅助信息,并引入自适应时序上下文模块(Adaptive Temporal Context Module, ATCM)和双门控特征解码模块(Dual-Gated Feature Decoder, DGFD),采用2018—2022年数据训练、2023年数据验证和2024年数据独立测试。结果表明,三市联合统一建模的合并R2为0.66±0.04;分区建模后,天水、平凉和庆阳的R2分别为0.85±0.07、0.94±0.03和0.81±0.04,三市合并RMSE、MAE和R2分别为(2 498.25±311.70) kg/hm2、(1 983.75±316.80) kg/hm2和0.90±0.02。研究结果表明,分区建模结合多源时序特征能够改善不同苹果主产区县域产量预测效果。

     

    Abstract: To address the influence of regional heterogeneity on model performance in county-level apple yield prediction across different production areas, this study developed a region-adaptive Residual Network-Vision Transformer (ResNet-ViT) model for predicting apple yield per unit area at the county level. The study covered 22 counties in three major apple-producing cities of Gansu Province, China, namely Tianshui, Pingliang, and Qingyang, and comprised 154 county-year samples from 2018 to 2024. Multi-source inputs were organized according to the apple growing season from April to October. For each month, seven remote-sensing indices and four meteorological variables were assembled into an 11-dimensional dynamic feature vector, forming a seven-month time series. Orchard area, elevation, slope, and aspect were used as static auxiliary features, while a learnable county embedding was introduced to represent relatively stable regional attributes. In the dual-branch architecture, the ResNet branch extracted local temporal variations among adjacent months, whereas the ViT branch modeled long-range dependencies over the entire growing season. Bidirectional feature interaction was used to exchange local and global temporal information between the two branches. An Adaptive Temporal Context Module (ATCM) was introduced to aggregate temporal information at multiple receptive-field scales, and a Dual-Gated Feature Decoder (DGFD) was employed to decode and fuse hierarchical features through gated weighting before regression. Data from 2018-2022 were used for training, data from 2023 for validation, and data from 2024 for independent testing, thereby maintaining a strict temporal extrapolation setting. To evaluate the influence of regional heterogeneity, a unified model trained using samples from all three cities was compared with city-specific models trained separately for Tianshui, Pingliang, and Qingyang. The unified and city-specific models used the same feature construction, temporal split, training configuration, and five fixed random seeds to ensure direct comparability. Model performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalized root mean square error (nRMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The pooled R2 of the unified three-city model was 0.66±0.04. After city-specific modeling, the R2 values for Tianshui, Pingliang, and Qingyang reached 0.85±0.07, 0.94±0.03, and 0.81±0.04, respectively. When the 22 independent test counties were pooled, the city-specific models achieved an RMSE of 2,498.25±311.70 kg/hm2, an MAE of 1,983.75±316.80 kg/hm2, and an R2 of 0.90±0.02. Averaging predictions from the five fixed random seeds further yielded a pooled RMSE of 2,283.30 kg/hm2, an MAE of 1,776.00 kg/hm2, and an R2 of 0.92. Among the baseline models, bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) achieved the highest pooled R2 of 0.81±0.03, whereas the ResNet-ViT model reached 0.90±0.02 under the same evaluation setting. Ablation experiments showed that bidirectional interaction produced higher prediction accuracy than configurations without intermediate cross-branch interaction or with only one-way interaction. Removing ATCM or DGFD from the bidirectional configuration reduced R2 and increased prediction errors, indicating that multi-scale temporal context modeling and hierarchical gated feature decoding contributed to model performance. In the multi-source feature comparison, the full feature configuration achieved a pooled R2 of 0.90±0.02, compared with 0.88±0.03 when only remote-sensing time-series features were used, whereas the historical-mean-yield baseline produced an R2 of -0.09. Rolling temporal extrapolation yielded pooled R2 values of 0.63±0.06, 0.78±0.03, and 0.90±0.02 when 2022, 2023, and 2024 were used as test years, respectively. County-held-out spatial validation yielded a pooled coefficient of determination of −0.12±0.30. All annual samples from each held-out county were excluded from training and validation. This result indicated limited generalization to unseen counties despite the improved temporal prediction obtained through city-specific modeling. The approach was therefore more suitable for apple-producing areas with continuous remote-sensing and meteorological records and historical yield samples. Application to new counties would require representative local samples for calibration. Further independent validation across additional regions and years, and under extreme climatic conditions, would be needed to assess broader applicability beyond the three cities examined in this study.

     

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