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基于Sentinel-2与谐波模型的裸耕地时空轨迹分析方法——以张家口坝上地区为例

Spatiotemporal recognition and trajectory analysis of unplanted cropland based on Sentinel-2 and CPSEM models: a case study of Bashang region in Zhangjiakou

  • 摘要: 裸耕地作为耕地未耕种的表现形式,其数量、空间格局及利用方式对粮食生产和生态效应具有复杂的影响。该研究以张家口坝上4县为研究区,基于Sentinel-2A影像,结合光谱混合分解、年内谐波模型,识别像元尺度裸耕地时空格局并划分轨迹频次;基于Kohonen自组织映射模型进行耕地状态分区,分析不同轨迹下土壤有机质(soil organic matter,SOM)响应。结果表明:1)2019—2024年逐年土地利用分类精度高于87%,可为后续识别裸耕地提供支撑;2)裸耕地面积“先增后减”,2023年最大,为986.34 km2,2020年最小,为241.78 km2,整体呈“中部聚集,向四周扩散”,张北县为集中分布区;3)5年间共有1768.95km2耕地发生过裸耕,1次裸耕面积占比最高,达50.45%,多次裸耕集中在沽源、张北县;4)区域以持续耕作和无序裸耕轨迹为主,县域间特征差异显著,沽源县以无序和后序裸耕为主,其余三县以无序和规律裸耕为主;5)研究区耕地状态与裸耕频次呈现非线性特征。中等裸耕频次对应较高状态水平,裸耕频次较短或较长的区域状态水平较低。规律与无序裸耕轨迹表现出SOM持续积累特征,而持续裸耕抑制SOM积累,表明阶段性裸耕与耕地状态提升相关。本研究为耕地休-耕的保护性利用方式提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Unplanted cropland, as an important manifestation of uncultivated farmland, exerts complex influences on food production and ecological processes through its quantity, spatial pattern, occurrence frequency, and utilization mode. However, the spatial–temporal characteristics of unplanted cropland and its implications for cropland conditions remain insufficiently understood, particularly in areas characterized by a single-cropping system and strong inter-annual fluctuations in agricultural production.Taking the four Bashang counties of Zhangjiakou City as a case study, this study employed Sentinel-2A imagery in combination with linear spectral mixture analysis and intra-annual CPSEM model to identify unplanted cropland at the pixel scale and delineate its occurrence frequency and temporal trajectories. Linear spectral mixture analysis was used to characterize the subpixel composition of complex land surfaces, while the intra-annual CPSEM model was introduced to capture the seasonal variation in GV and SL components. These spectral and temporal features were further integrated with a random forest classifier to produce annual land-cover maps and identify unplanted cropland. Based on the annual identification results, the frequency and trajectories of unplanting were quantitatively characterized.Furthermore, a Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was applied to classify cropland states, and the responses of different unplanting trajectories to soil organic matter (SOM) were analyzed.The results indicated that: 1) the annual land -cover classification accuracy from 2019 to 2024 exceeded 87%, providing reliable support for unplanted cropland identification; 2) the area of unplanted cropland exhibited an increasing-then-decreasing trend, reaching a maximum of 986.34 km2 in 2023 and a minimum of 241.78 km2 in 2020. Spatially, it showed a pattern of“central aggregation with outward expansion”with Zhangbei County as the core concentration area; 3) during the five-year study period, a total of 1,768.95 km2 of cropland experienced unplanted conditions, among which a frequency of one occurrence was the most common, accounting for 50.45% of the total unplanted area, while cropland with multiple unplanted occurrences was mainly concentrated in Guyuan and Zhangbei counties; 4) at the regional scale, cropland was primarily dominated by continuous cultivation and disordered unplanted cropland trajectories. Significant inter-county differences were observed: Guyuan County was mainly characterized by disordered and late-stage unplanted cropland, whereas the other three counties were dominated by disordered and regular unplanted cropland trajectories; 5) the relationship between cropland state and unplanted cropland frequency exhibited a clear nonlinear pattern. A moderate frequency corresponded to higher cropland quality, whereas both lower and higher frequencies were associated with lower state levels. Regular and disordered unplanted cropland trajectories showed continuous SOM accumulation, whereas continuous unplanted cropland trajectories suppressed SOM accumulation, indicating that periodic unplanted conditions were associated with improved cropland conditions. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of unplanted cropland and optimizing protective fallow–cultivation practices. By considering unplanting frequency and temporal trajectories, the proposed framework supports the optimization of adaptive fallow–cultivation management strategies, including decisions concerning where to fallow, how to fallow, and how long to fallow. It thereby provides practical insights for the protective utilization and sustainable management of cropland and cropland planning oriented toward food security.

     

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