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滨海盐碱区耕地撂荒时空演变特征及其驱动机制分析

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of farmland abandonment in coastal saline-alkali areas

  • 摘要: 滨海盐碱区耕地是保障粮食稳产增产的重要土地资源,揭示滨海盐碱区耕地撂荒时空演变特征及其驱动机制,对推进非传统耕地资源高效利用与保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本文以黄河三角洲为研究区,采用逐年土地利用轨迹追踪、自然环境梯度分析和多元线性回归方法,探究滨海盐碱区耕地撂荒的时空格局、持续时长、自然环境指向及综合驱动因素。结果表明:1)2000—2024年黄河三角洲耕地面积持续下降,耕地撂荒总体呈波动增长态势,累计撂荒面积达11.32万hm2。空间上集中分布在黄河三角洲北部、渤海沿岸地带,具有明显沿海集聚和持续累积特征;2)耕地撂荒持续时长由沿海向内陆逐渐递减,撂荒面积随持续时长增加而减少。研究区耕地撂荒以5年内短期撂荒为主,而河口区、沾化区和垦利区持续时长在10年以上的耕地撂荒面积较大,呈现长期性固化撂荒状态;3)低平近海和盐碱胁迫是耕地撂荒发生的重要自然基础。耕地撂荒分布趋向于高程200 m以下、坡度0°~1°和距海洋距离30 km以内的自然环境敏感地带,分别占撂荒总面积的98.83%、97.98%和83.76%,有81.77%的撂荒耕地位于土壤盐碱化区。4)黄河三角洲耕地撂荒是滨海盐碱区自然环境约束、耕作条件限制和社会经济转型共同驱动下的耕地边际化退出过程。耕地连片程度、灌溉保障能力和农业机械化水平提升能够显著抑制耕地撂荒。人均GDP、农村居民人均可支配收入与耕地撂荒面积呈正相关关系,而人均耕地面积则对耕地撂荒具有显著负向影响。研究可为滨海盐碱区耕地资源保护、盐碱地综合利用和区域农业治理提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Coastal saline-alkali areas represent a crucial non-traditional farmland resource for ensuring stable and increased grain production. However, the abandonment of farmland hinders agricultural development and sustainable utilization. Uncovering the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of farmland abandonment in these areas provides scientific support for the efficient use of non-traditional farmland resources and the national strategy of ensuring food security. Focusing on the Yellow River Delta in Shandong Province as the study area and utilizing remote sensing datasets on land use from 2000 to 2024, this study employs annual land-use trajectory tracking, natural environmental gradient analysis, and multiple linear regression to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns, duration, environmental associations, and comprehensive driving factors of cultivated farmland abandonment in coastal saline-alkali regions. The results showed that: 1) From 2000 to 2024, the farmland area in the Yellow River Delta continued to decline, while farmland abandonment exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend. The cumulative abandoned farmland area reached 11.32•104 hm2. Spatially, abandoned farmland was mainly concentrated in the northern Yellow River Delta and along the Bohai Sea coast, showing distinct coastal clustering and continuous accumulation. 2) The duration of farmland abandonment gradually decreased from coastal areas to inland areas, and the abandoned area declined with increasing abandonment duration. Short-term abandonment within five years dominated the study area, indicating that most abandoned farmland had not yet entered a long-term stable abandoned state. However, within Dongying City, Hekou District, Zhanhua District, and Kenli District had relatively large areas of farmland abandoned for more than 10 years, suggesting a pronounced long-term and fixed abandonment pattern in these areas. 3) Low-lying coastal conditions and salinity stress constituted important natural foundations for farmland abandonment. Abandoned farmland tended to occur in environmentally sensitive areas with elevations below 200 m, slopes of 0°-1°, and distances within 30 km from the sea, accounting for 98.83%, 97.98%, and 83.76% of the total abandoned farmland area, respectively. In addition, 81.77% of abandoned farmland was located in soil salinization areas, indicating that saline-alkali stress imposed a strong constraint on the stability of farmland use. 4) Farmland abandonment in the Yellow River Delta can be interpreted as a process of farmland marginalization and withdrawal jointly driven by natural environmental constraints, farming condition limitations, and socioeconomic transition in coastal saline-alkali areas. Improvements in farmland contiguity, irrigation guarantee capacity, and agricultural mechanization significantly inhibited farmland abandonment by enhancing land-use stability and reducing farming costs. Per capita GDP and per capita disposable income of rural residents were positively correlated with abandoned farmland area, suggesting that economic development and non-agricultural employment opportunities may increase the opportunity cost of agricultural labor and weaken the willingness to continue cultivating low-efficiency farmland. In contrast, farmland area per capita had a significant negative effect on farmland abandonment, indicating that better farmland resource endowment is conducive to moderate-scale farming and abandonment risk reduction. This study will further enrich theoretical understanding in agricultural geography and land system science, while providing scientific support for the conservation of cultivated land resources, the comprehensive utilization of saline-alkali land, and regional agricultural governance in coastal saline-alkali areas.

     

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