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新形势下中国耕地利用的粮食生产保障能力评价

Evaluating grain production security using cultivated land in China in the new era

  • 摘要: 在目前全球粮食不安全状况持续加剧、中国国内粮食生产仍处紧平衡的背景下,亟需明晰新形势下耕地利用在保障粮食安全方面的重要作用。该研究从“耕地数量稳定—耕地质量提升—生态可持续性—粮食供给潜力—耕地利用风险”的五个维度出发,构建耕地利用的粮食生产保障能力评价理论框架和评价体系,并基于2007—2022年多尺度数据展开定量评估。结果表明:1)2007—2022年间,中国耕地利用的粮食生产保障水平增幅达22%,保障能力明显提升;2)东北平原、长江中下游平原、四川盆地和新疆的部分地区的粮食生产保障能力突出,分数普遍高于0.45的中国平均值;黄土高原和青藏高原的能力较弱,部分区域低于0.42;3)由于丰富的耕地可开发资源,四川盆地和新疆地区具有较大粮食供给潜力,利用潜力得分分别是平均值的1.5和1.8倍;全国有超过35%的市级单元呈现高风险值的空间聚集,尤其是黄土高原和青藏高原的耕地不稳定利用风险较高。该研究评价的中国耕地利用的粮食生产保障能力结果有别于粮食产量指标, 突出了区域的粮食增产潜力和自然、社会等多重耕地利用风险。将该研究评价结果与粮食产量双维度综合考虑,有助于分区诊断粮食安全发展方向。该研究揭示的分维度粮食生产保障能力的空间分异规律可为挖掘粮食增产潜力、降低耕地利用风险、提升耕地利用对粮食安全的保障水平提供科学决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Global food security can dominate the balance of grain production in China. Dual challenges can be found in the grain supply security from both internal and external factors. Therefore, it is urgent to clarify the role of cultivated land use in grain production under various circumstances. Previous research has explored the relationship between cultivated land use and grain production. It is still lacking to integrate the regional yield potential and reduction risks into an evaluation of cultivated land in grain production. Current evaluations of cultivated land use also fail to adequately consider the complexities of these new challenges. In this study, the five-dimensional framework (cultivated land quantity stability, quality improvement, ecological sustainability, grain supply potential, and utilization risks) was proposed to evaluate the grain production security of cultivated land use in China. Among them, the traditional "quantity, quality, and ecology" framework was expanded to protect the cultivated land. Two additional dimensions were also introduced: development potential and utilization risks. A multi-scale evaluation was conducted at the regional, provincial, and municipal levels. Finally, the 13 indicators were selected from 2007 to 2022. The results indicate that grain production security was significantly improved during the study period. The overall score increased from 0.46 in 2007 to 0.56 in 2022, indicating a 22% improvement. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region recorded the most substantial growth, with the scores rising from 0.39 to 0.52—a more than 30% increase. In contrast, the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the major grain-producing region, showed the smallest improvement, due to its already advanced level of sustainable cultivated land use. Spatially, the superior security of grain production was observed in the regions, such as the Northeast Plain, the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Plain, and parts of the Sichuan Basin and Xinjiang. The scores consistently exceeded the national average of 0.45. Conversely, the Loess Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau displayed weaker capacities, some of which the score was below 0.42. The Sichuan Basin and Xinjiang also exhibited significant potential for grain supply, with potential use scores 1.5 and 1.8 times the national average, respectively. The higher risks of unstable cultivated land use were found in the Loess Plateau and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with more than 35% of municipal units with high-risk concentrations. Significant clustering was observed in the spatial distribution of scores over the five dimensions. The patterns of high- and low-value regions varied greatly. Importantly, there was no correlation between grain output and production security, rather than the conventional metrics of grain yield. An emphasis was also put on the regional yield potential and the multifaceted risks—both natural and social—associated with cultivated land use. The evolving dynamics of cultivated land use were effectively captured for grain production. The evaluation was also integrated with the grain yield data. A dual-dimensional approach was obtained to diagnose regional grain security. The spatial differentiation patterns were identified for the decision-making on the grain yield potential. The risk of cultivated land use was reduced to enhance the overall capacity of cultivated land for the high grain security. This evaluation framework of cultivated land use can also provide insights to improve grain production security.

     

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