Abstract:
Precisely predicting the distribution of Aleurocanthus spiniferus(Quaintanca) infestations in tea areas under changing climate is currently a research focus. In this study, based on the most representative tea garden pest, the black thorn aphid, in Shandong tea area, and using the MaxEnt species distribution model and three future climate scenarios(RCP26, RCP45, RCP85) for the year2050, actual investigation and literature data were used to obtain sample data on the distribution of Aleurocanthus spiniferus(Quaintanca) in Shandong tea area, and 19 climate variables and 8 soil environmental factors were modeled by cutting from the world climate data platform for the Shandong tea area. Based on field surveys and model predictions, intercropping of tea and forests is recommended in the low and medium suitability areas, innovative and intelligent sound technology should be promoted in the mediumhigh suitability areas, and the source management of local afforestation seedlings should be strengthened in the high suitability areas.