Abstract: In this paper, the population, grain, cultivated land and other mathematical models are analyzed and predicted to study the land potential and carrying capacity in Hotan area. Research shows that the optimal scale of land population carrying capacity in Hotan is 2.2 million to 2.5 million at this stage, the optimal scale in 2025 is 2.4 million to 2.7 million, and the optimal scale in 2030 is 2.6 million to2.9 million. The population in the region is overloaded. Therefore, strictly control population growth, protect arable land resources,promote scientific and technological agriculture, and increase grain yields, so as to increase the carrying capacity of the land population and achieve sustainable development in Hotan.