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基于三维水足迹模型的农业用水可持续性评估

Assessment of Agricultural Water Sustainability Based on 3D Water Footprint Model

  • 摘要: 为探究我国农业用水可持续状况,从淡水资源作为一种关键自然资本的角度出发,结合三维水足迹、降尺度行星边界和脱钩分析等方法,计算并分析了31个省级行政区1998—2020年农业水资源利用的时空变化。结果表明,我国农业用水状况整体良好,但区域间农业水资源利用可持续状况差异较大。降水量少或社会经济用水多的华北、华东和西北地区农业水资源供需矛盾较为突出,降水丰腴的西南和华南地区农业水资源可持续状况较好。在居民节水意识增强和政策约束的情况下,北京、河北、山西和上海的农业用水可持续状况呈变好态势;在降水年际差异大和农业用水占比变化的影响下,辽宁、江苏、山东、河南和甘肃的农业用水可持续状况呈突变型,存量和流量间占用关系无明显变化规律。浙江表现出最好的农业水-经济关系类型,北京则相反;2014年后北京和上海高频出现了最差的农业水-经济类型6,经济发展与资源环境间矛盾愈发严峻。研究可为农业用水及种植业规划提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To explore the sustainable status of agricultural water withdrawal in China, the spatial and temporal changes of agricultural water use in 31 provincial administrative regions from 1998 to 2020 were calculated and analyzed, at the perspective of freshwater resources as a key natural capital, which combining 3D water footprint, downscaled planetary boundaries and decoupling analysis. The results showed that the overall agricultural water withdrawal in China was good, but the sustainable status of regional agricultural water withdrawal varied greatly. The contradiction between water supply and demand was more prominent in North China, East China and Northwest China, where precipitation was low or social and economic water withdrawal was high, while the sustainable situation of water resources in Southwest China and South China, where precipitation is abundant, was better. Under the influence of residents’ increasing awareness of water conservation and policy constraints, agricultural water sustainability in Beijing, Hebei, Shanxi, and Shanghai was becoming better; under the influence of large inter-annual differences in precipitation and changes in the proportion of agricultural water use, agricultural water sustainability in Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Gansu was abruptly changing, and there was no obvious pattern of change in the occupancy relationship between stocks and flows. Zhejiang showed the best performance of agricultural water-economy relationship, while Beijing showed the opposite; the worst type of agricultural water-economy 6 emerged in Beijing and Shanghai frequently after 2014. The contradiction between economic development and resources environment was becoming more and more severe. The research results can provide reference for agricultural water use and plantation planning.

     

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