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基于VCI的内蒙古生长季干旱变化及对气候响应

Drought change in growing season of Inner Mongolia and its response to climate based on VCI

  • 摘要: 为有效开展内蒙古干旱监测及抗旱减灾工作,基于2000—2021年5—9月逐月MODIS植被长势产品,计算植被状态指数(vegetation condition index,VCI),结合内蒙古118个气象站的生长季气温、降水数据,利用Sen趋势分析法、偏相关系数法等分析内蒙古生长季干旱时空变化及其与气象要素的关系.分析结果表明,研究期内内蒙古生长季的VCI整体呈上升趋势,主要上升区位于内蒙古的东南部农牧交错带和西部草原与荒漠过渡区,在人类的正向干扰下这些地区的植被抗旱能力明显提升.变异系数分析可知,春末夏初内蒙古东部地区的干旱风险相对较高,随着夏季到来,干旱高风险区向西移动至内蒙古中部地区,秋季干旱风险范围增大但强度相对减小.降水偏少是内蒙古干旱发生的决定性气象因素,而高温主要与草原干旱的发生密切相关.基于VCI的干旱分析可有效反映区域抗旱能力的提升,为干旱的精细化管理提供科学参考.

     

    Abstract: In order to effectively carry out drought monitoring and drought relief in Inner Mongolia, the vegetation condition index(VCI) was calculated based on the monthly MODIS vegetation growth data from May to September in 2000—2021. By combining the growing season temperature and precipitation data of 118 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia, Sen trend analysis and partial correlation coefficient methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of drought in the growing season of Inner Mongolia and its relationship with meteorological elements. The analysis results show that du-ring the study period, the VCI in the growing season of Inner Mongolia shows an overall upward trend, for which the main rising areas are located in the southeastern Inner Mongolian farming-pastoral transition zone and the western grassland-desert transition zone. Under the positive interference of humans the drought resistance of vegetation in these area is significantly improved. The coefficient of variation analysis shows that the drought risk in eastern Inner Mongolia is relatively high in late spring and early summer. With the arrival of summer, the drought high risk area moves westward to central Inner Mongolia. The range of drought risk in autumn increases, but the intensity decreases relatively. Low rainfall is the decisive determining meteorological factor for the occurrence of drought in Inner Mongolia, and there is a close relationship between high temperature and grassland drought. Drought analysis based on VCI can effectively reflect the improvement of regional drought resistance, and also provide scientific reference for fine-grained drought management.

     

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