公交站点延误估算方法研究
Research on Delay Estimation Methods for Bus Station
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摘要: 为分析公交站点延误水平,针对典型的直线式和港湾式公交站台,分别从微观和宏观角度提出两种公交站点延误估算方法。一是从微观层面分解公交停靠流程,根据公交停靠的不同阶段选取公交进出站时间、乘客上下车时间和其他延误时间作为延误参数,对实际调查数据分析得到每阶段无延误条件下的参考值,计算公交站点延误时间;二是引入公交负荷到达率来反映站点实际运营状况,分析负荷到达率与公交站点延误的关系,提出延误时间的估算模型,并确定公交负荷到达率大于20辆/h作为模型的适用范围。通过实地调查验证,结果表明:两种估算方法得到的结果与实际观测数据误差率均低于15%,基本符合实际情况,可用于对公交站点延误的估算,为优化公交站点布局,减少居民出行时间和提高出行满意度提供理论依据。Abstract: In order to analyze the delay level of bus stations, two bus station delay estimation methods are proposed from the micro and macro perspectives for typical linear and harbor bus stations. The first is to decompose the bus stop process at a micro level, select bus entry and exit time, passenger boarding time and other delay time as delay parameters according to the different stages of bus stop, analyze the actual survey data to obtain the reference value under the condition of no delay at each stage and calculate delay time at bus stops. The second is to introduce the bus load arrival rate to reflect the actual operation status of the station, analyze the relationship between load arrival rate and delay of the bus station, propose a delay time estimation model and determine that the bus load arrival rate is greater than 20 vehicles/h as the scope of application. Through field survey verification, the results show that the error rate between the results obtained by the two estimation methods and the actual observation data is less than 15%, which is basically in line with the actual situation, can be used to estimate the delay of the bus station and provide theoretical basis for optimizing the layout of bus stops, reducing residents’ travel time and improving travel satisfaction.
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