全球供应链环境下的中国竹藤商品出口影响因素分析
Analysis on the Factors Influencing Chinese Bamboo and Rattan Product Export Under the Background of Global Supply Chain
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摘要: 为分析全球供应链环境下的中国竹藤商品出口情况及其影响因素,优化竹藤商品出口产业结构,促进林产品国际物流产业升级,本文利用经验模态分解法对6类主要竹藤商品2007—2019年的出口额时间序列进行分解,并运用多元逐步回归分析,从供给因素、需求因素和贸易环境因素分析对中国竹藤商品出口的影响程度。研究表明:由经验模态分解结果可知,竹藤原料、罐装笋、竹炭、竹藤编制产品和竹藤家具的出口额波动主要来自长期趋势分量,工业化利用竹产品的波动主要来自中长期波动分量;由逐步回归分析结果可知,贸易环境是影响我国竹藤商品出口的主要方面,其中人民币贬值对竹炭和竹藤家具的出口有显著的促进作用,国际原油价格上升对于竹藤原料和工业化利用竹产品的出口存在显著阻碍作用,国际金融危机的爆发阻碍了竹藤原料的出口,其次供给因素对竹藤商品的出口也有较显著的影响,竹藤原料进口增加对工业化利用竹产品和竹藤编制产品的出口有显著阻碍作用,对竹炭和竹藤家具的出口有显著的促进作用,竹林面积的扩大对罐装笋的出口增长具有显著的促进作用。由此可知,2007—2019年我国竹藤商品出口额总体呈波动上升趋势,各类竹藤商品出口额的波动较为平稳,我国的竹藤出口受贸易环境因素影响最为显著,供给影响因素次之,需求因素变化较平稳对竹藤商品出口相对不显著。Abstract: In order to analyze China’s bamboo and rattan commodity export situation and its influencing factors under the global supply chain environment, optimize the industrial structure of bamboo and rattan commodity export and promote the upgrading of forest products international logistics industry, this paper decomposed the time series of the annual export of the six major types of bamboo and rattan commodity value during 2007-2019 by the empirical mode decomposition and analyzed the impacts of various factors on China’s bamboo and rattan commodity exports from three aspects including supply level, market demand, and trade environment by regression analysis. Research showed that according to the empirical mode decomposition results, the fluctuations in the export value of bamboo and rattan raw materials(BRRM), canned bamboo shoots(CBS), bamboo charcoal(BC), bamboo and rattan plaits(BRP) and bamboo and rattan furniture(BRF) were mainly sourced from the long-term trend component, and the fluctuations in the industrialized use of bamboo products(IUBP) were mainly due to the medium and long-term fluctuation component. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the trade environment was the main aspect that affects China’s bamboo and rattan commodity exports. The devaluation of the Chinese currency played a significant role in promoting the export of bamboo charcoal and bamboo and rattan furniture. The rise in international crude oil prices significantly hindered the export of bamboo and rattan raw materials and industrialized utilization of bamboo. The outbreak of the international financial crisis also had negative impact on the export of bamboo and rattan raw materials; meanwhile, the supply level also had a significant impact on the export of bamboo and rattan products. The increase in the import of bamboo and rattan raw materials had a significant hindering effect on the export of industrialized utilization of bamboo and bamboo and rattan plaits, but significantly promoted the export of bamboo charcoal and bamboo and rattan furniture. The expansion of bamboo forest area had a significant promotion effect on the increase in the export value of canned bamboo shoots. Therefore,China’s export value of bamboo and rattan commodities from 2007 to 2019 showed a fluctuating upward trend. The export value of various types of bamboo and rattan commodities fluctuated relatively smoothly. China’s export of bamboo and rattan was most significantly affected by trade environment factors,followed by supply factors. The change in market demand was relatively small,so the export of bamboo and rattan commodities was relatively insignificant.