焉耆盆地近60年降水量时空变化特征分析
Spatial and Temporal Variation of Precipitation in Yanqi Basin in Recent 60 years
-
摘要: 依据焉耆盆地周边低山区大山口、黄水沟及克尔古提等水文站和盆地中部的焉耆及和硕气象站的降水量资料,运用M-K趋势分析及小波分析等方法对焉耆盆地1960年—2019年降水量的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:近60年来盆地内年降水呈增加趋势,垂直分布和南北差异比较明显,降水量随海拔高度的升高而逐渐增大,盆地北部山前区降水量大于南部山前区降水量,西边山前区降水量大于东面山前区降水量;降水量年内分配极不均匀,年降水量主要集中在汛期,冬春两季干燥少雨,最大与最小年降水量相差4.6倍~11.0倍;因地理位置和海拔高度不同,突变时间集中于20世纪70年代—80年代;同时存在7~9的震荡周期,但各个站点第一主周期有所不同,大尺度的周期嵌套着小尺度周期变化,有利于焉耆盆地水资源利用。研究结果为焉耆盆地积极应对气候变化,因地施策地合理利用水资源提供了科学依据。Abstract: Based on the precipitation data from Dashankou,Huangshuigou and Kerguti hydrological stations in the low mountains around Yanqi Basin and the meteorological stations in Yanqi and Heshuo in the central basin,M-K trend analysis and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation in the Yanqi Basin from1960 to 2019. The results are as follows. In the past 60 years,the annual precipitation in the basin shows an increasing trend,with obvious vertical distribution and north-south difference. The precipitation gradually increases with the elevation. The precipitation in the northern piedmont is greater than that in the southern piedmont,and that in the western piedmont is greater than that in the eastern piedmont. The annual precipitation distribution is extremely uneven. The annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the flood season,and there is little rain in winter and spring. The difference between the maximum and minimum annual precipitation is 4. 6 to 11 times. Due to the different geographical location and altitude,the mutation time was concentrated in the 1970 s and 1980 s. At the same time,there is a 7 ~ 9 oscillation cycle,but the first main cycle varies from station to station. The large-scale cycle is nested with the small scale cycle change,which is conducive to the utilization of water resources in Yanqi Basin. The results could provide scientific basis for Yanqi Basin to actively cope with climate change and rationally utilize water resources.