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大坝结构可靠性影响因子的全局重要性分析

Global importance analysis of influencing factors of dam structural reliability

  • 摘要: 传统方法一般采用灵敏度系数分析各项不确定因子对大坝结构可靠性的影响,但灵敏度系数只在因子设计验算点处取值,针对该局部性取值的缺点,研究了大坝结构可靠性影响因子的全局重要性分析方法。首先,在建立大坝结构可靠性分析模型的基础上,考虑不确定因子在整个失效域内的变化,构建了影响因子的全局重要性测度指标。然后,采用基于截断重要抽样的蒙特卡洛法,实现了因子全局重要性的量化分析。最后,建立了某坝的结构可靠性分析模型,计算对比了各不确定因子的全局重要性测度和灵敏度系数,结果表明全局重要性测度能更全面地反映不确定因子对大坝结构可靠性的影响。

     

    Abstract: Sensitivity coefficients are commonly used in the analysis of the influence of various uncertain factors on the reliability of dam structures; however, the values of the sensitivity coefficients are selected from the range of the local design checking points. In order to overcome the defect of locality, the global importance analysis method of the factors which can influence the dam structural reliability is studied for the analysis. Firstly, on the basis of the dam structural reliability analysis model, the global importance measurement index of influencing factors are determined considering the changes of uncertain factors in the whole failure domain. Then, Monte Carlo simulation combined with truncated importance sampling(TIS-MCS) is used to quantitatively calculate the global importance measurement index. Finally, the structural reliability analysis model of a dam is established to calculate and compare the global importance measurement indexes and sensitivity coefficients of the uncertain factors. The result shows that the global importance measurement index can reflect the influence of uncertain factors on the dam structural reliability more comprehensively than the sensitivity coefficient.

     

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