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梯级水库群多目标协同均衡调控研究

Multi-objective synergistic and balanced regulation of cascade reservoirs

  • 摘要: 梯级水库群调度下多目标矛盾突出,为实现利益的协同与均衡保障,首先识别多目标关键利益与非关键利益,并基于协同学构建了梯级水库群多目标协同优化调度模型;其次提出了基于满意边界的时段内多目标利益均衡调控方法,并引入以混沌时间序列分析的关联维数及Kolmogorov熵对水库群多目标调度系统进行混沌特征识别与引导。在黄河上游梯级水库群多目标调度中的应用结果表明:在不降低多目标利益保障水平的情况下,所提理论与方法实现了梯级水库群调度下多目标利益在时段间形成协同有序、在时段内达到利益均衡;最终方案中黄河上游梯级水库群多目标调度系统的总协同度为0.64,各目标的关键利益保障程度明显高于非关键利益。研究成果为存在多目标竞争关系的流域水资源高效利用提供了新的理论与方法,拓展了水库群多目标优化调度的研究范畴,促进了水资源系统工程学与协同学、混沌学的交叉与融合。

     

    Abstract: The contradictions between multi-objectives are prominent under the regulation of cascade reservoirs. In order to realize the synergy and equilibrium of different benefits, firstly, the primary and secondary benefits of multi-objectives are identified, and a multi-objective synergistic regulation model for reservoirs is established based on synergetics theory; secondly, a method of multi-objective balanced benefit regulation is proposed based on satisfaction boundaries; lastly, the correlation dimension of the chaos theory and Kolmogorov entropy are used to identify and guide the chaotic characteristics of multi-objective regulation system of cascade reservoirs. The application results in the upper Yellow River cascade reservoirs show that under the proposed theory and method, the benefits of multi-objectives can reach a satisfactory state of synergy and equilibrium within a certain period of time without reducing the guarantee level of multi-objective benefits. The synergistic degree of the multi-objective regulation system in the final scheme is 0.64, and the guarantee degree of the primary benefits of multi-objectives are higher than the secondary benefits. This study provides a new approach for the efficient utilization of water resources in water-deficient basins afflicted by competitions between multi-objectives, expands the research scope of multi-objective optimal regulation of reservoirs, and promotes the intersection and fusion of system engineering, synergy and chaos in the field of water resources research.

     

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