Abstract: Accurate risk assessment of water resources conflicts and prediction of risk situation are vital to the prevention of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River and the safeguarding of regional water security. Based on the five dimensions of water volume, water use efficiency, water quality, ecological environment and socio-economy, a risk assessment and situation analysis framework of water resources conflicts was constructed and a model was established using entropy method and set pair analysis based on subtraction set pair potential. Then the model was used to evaluate the risk of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River during the period of 2011-2020. Additionally, the risk development trend was analyzed by five-element subtraction set pair potential. The results show that the risk level of water resources conflicts in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River is low and shows a downward trend. The risk level of water resources conflicts in the three provinces from high to low is Shanxi Province, Hebei Province and Henan Province. From the perspective of five dimensions of water resources conflicts, Hebei Province needs to focus on the conflict risk caused by water volume and water use efficiency; the overall situation in Henan Province is good, whereas Shanxi Province should focus on the conflict risks caused by water volume, water quality and socio-economy. The research results are of great practical significance in alleviating water affair disputes, maintaining regional stability and realizing sustainable development in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River.