Abstract:
Combining the transmission characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2, an SEIQRW COVID-19 transmission dynamics model is proposed that considers “susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered and environmental virus”. The basic reproduction number R
0 was calculated according to the next-generation matrix method, the stability of the equilibrium point was analyzed by applying the Hurwitz criterion and matrix theory, and the optimal control strategy was found by using the Pontryagin maximum principle. Numerical simulations verify the theoretical results, sensitivity analysis determines the importance of parameters to R
0, and fitting verify that the model with environmental virus is more consistent with the actual data than the model without environmental virus. Optimal control shows that control measures can effectively reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus to humans through the environment.