A Risk Prediction Method for Combat Intent Understanding Based on Distributed Construction and Synthesis

Aiming at the problems of unreasonable operation conception and scheme formulation and poor implementation effect caused by the deviation of intention understanding in the process of operational planning, a method of predicting potential risks in the process of intention understanding in advance by using possibility distribution construction and synthesis was proposed to effectively avoid the potential risks in the process of operational deployment. Firstly, the main factors affecting intention understanding were analyzed, and the probability distribution was constructed on the risk interval of the main factors. Secondly, the maximum probability degree and risk value of the potential risk probability distribution were calculated by using the T-module operator to synthesize the risk probability distribution of the main factors. Finally, the probability interval number was used to divide the risk level, and the similarity measure between the probability distribution of the potential risk and the probability distribution of five risk levels was calculated to get the potential risk level. In the simulation experiment, the potential risk values of the intention understanding process in the scenario 1 are respectively 0.748, 0.342 and 0.621, and the risk levels are respectively level 4, level 2 and level 3. The decision makers can effectively reduce the risk size by making targeted adjustments according to the predicted results, which can provide important prior information for wartime command and decision-making.