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基于遗忘递推最小二乘法的泵站水平位移动态监控模型研究

Research on the Horizontal Displacement Statistical Model of Pump Station Based on Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square

  • 摘要: 泵站建筑物水平位移是泵站长期运行过程中的重要监测项目,对水平位移监测数据进行分析和建模是掌握泵站结构运行状态的重要手段。传统统计模型的回归参数为固定值,不能反映泵站结构变形性态的动态变化特征。为此,构建了基于遗忘递推最小二乘法(FFRLS)的泵站水平位移动态监控模型,该模型通过引入遗忘因子增强了新监测数据对模型的修正能力,实现了对统计模型参数的动态求解,从而使模型长期保持较高的预测精度。最后结合南水北调东线工程某泵站枢纽,验证了模型的有效性。工程实例表明,所构建的模型可以根据新数据的加入自适应更新泵站水平位移统计模型的回归参数,有效提高了统计模型的拟合与预测精度,为掌握泵站建筑物安全性态提供了新方法。

     

    Abstract: The horizontal displacement of the pump station buildings is an important monitoring item in the long-term operation of the pump station, and it is also an important index reflecting the operation status of pump stations. The fixed regression parameters of the traditional statistical model cannot describe the dynamic characteristics of the deformation behavior for the pump station structures. In view of that, this paper constructs a dynamic monitoring model of horizontal displacement for pump station based on forgetting factor recursive least square(FFRLS) method. By introducing forgetting factor, the correction ability of the new monitoring data to the model is enhanced and the parameters of statistical model are got dynamically to improve prediction accuracy. Then the validity of the proposed model is verified through a case study of a pump station project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The results show that the model can update the parameters of the statistical model adaptively with the addition of new data, and the regression and prediction accuracies of the statistical model are effectively promoted, which provides a new method to master the operation status of pump station buildings.

     

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