重力坝抗滑稳定可靠度动态评估模型研究与应用
Study and Application of the Dynamic Reliability Evaluation Model for the Anti-sliding Stability of Gravity Dams
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摘要: 高混凝土重力坝赋存地质与运行环境复杂,坝与地基载荷水平高,运维管理难度大,安全风险管控问题突出。变形监测数据是直观反映大坝结构性态的手段之一,因此,充分利用大坝安全监测信息来实现坝体稳定安全实时评估和动态预测对重力坝工程长期安全运行具有重要意义。本文结合材料参数敏感性分析和动态位移反分析技术,构建了重力坝抗滑稳定响应面功能函数,提出了基于大坝变形监测数据的重力坝抗滑稳定可靠度动态评估模型。GD重力坝案例分析表明,该模型可靠度模拟误差小于2%,预测误差小于5%,计算效率与精度高,适应性强,实现了复杂运行条件和多源不确定因素下重力坝抗滑稳定安全的动态定量评估。Abstract: High concrete gravity dam has complex geological and operating environment,high load level of dam and foundation,difficult operation and maintenance management,and outstanding safety risk control problems. Deformation monitoring data is one of the ways to directly reflect the structural behavior of the dam. Therefore,it is of great significance for the long-term safe operation of gravity dam projects to make full use of dam safety monitoring information to realize real-time evaluation and dynamic prediction of dam stability. In this paper,combined with the sensitivity analysis of material parameters and the back analysis technology of dynamic displacement,the performance function of anti-sliding stability response surface of the gravity dam is constructed,and a dynamic evaluation model of anti-sliding stability reliability of gravity dam based on dam deformation monitoring data is proposed. The case study of GD gravity dam shows that reliability simulation error of the model is less than 2%,the prediction error is less than 5%,the calculation efficiency and accuracy are high,and adaptability is strong. It realizes the dynamic quantitative evaluation of anti-sliding stability and safety of gravity dam under complex operating conditions and multi-source uncertain factors.